Why has Tennessee become so Republican?

[HAnnA MArin County]

I think Tennessee has swung as Republican as it's going to for a while, unless of course barring that Obama's approval ratings continue to fall and the economy gets worse (unemployment continues to rise, gas prices rise, etc.) and the GOP has a seemingly good year in 2012, I think Obama will do a little better in Tennessee in 2012 but the Republican nominee will ultimately carry the state regardless who (s)he is.

I think the reason why Tennessee has become so Republican in recent years is simply just the changing images of the party. The Republican Party has become the party of the South, while the Democrats have become the party of everywhere else (save for the Inner Mountain West). Al Gore, the favorite son, just narrowly lost the state in 2000 to George W. Bush, why I'm not for sure, as this was before I took an interest in politics. The state swung even more Republican in 2004 obviously because the moral issues were highly exploited by the Republicans to mobilize their base of Bible thumping hicks and rednecks, and I suspect there must be lots of those in Tennessee. That and given the fact that John Kerry (and Barack Obama) were both bad fits for the state: two big-city intellectual liberals who had no connections to the South. I don't think Obama's race had that much to do with why the swung more Republican in 2008 - it might have been, but recall that Harold Ford Jr. came really close to winning the open U.S. Senate seat in 2006. Harold Ford has connections with Tennessee; Barack Obama didn't. But I really suspect there's a more underlying reason of why the state continues to become more and more Republican.

It is, as someone previously mentioned, a heavily rural state save for the four major metropolitan areas of Memphis, Nashville, Chattanooga and Knoxville. Eastern Tennessee has always been strongly Republican, even in the days of the Solid Democratic South. Middle Tennessee is a mystery because this is where the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) areas are, and while TN-04 and TN-06 are both held by Democrats in Congress, McCain crushed Obama in these heavily rural districts. Northwestern Tennessee is also interesting, seeing as how it's also a heavily rural part of the state that's been solidly Democrat but McCain did pretty well here too. Obviously the urban/rural divide comes into play in Tennessee. Tennessee's a lot like Arkansas in that the rural areas tend to be represented by Democrats at the local and state level but Republicans trounce Democrats at the federal level. I think this is because the state Democratic parties in Arkansas and Tennessee are considerably more conservative than the mainstream Democratic Party, particularly on social issues. They may also be a little more conservative on economic issues as well, which makes voters a little more amendable to voting Republican. A weak analysis but I'm just throwing some ideas out there.

Lastly, let's take into consideration the race factor. I found the following racial composition statistics for all the states but I'll only post the Southern/Outer South states along with the results of the election.

Mississippi (60.7% White, 36.2% Black) - McCain 56.18, Obama 43.00
Louisiana (62.5% White, 32.3% Black) - McCain 58.56, Obama 39.93
South Carolina (66.1% White, 29.4% Black) - McCain 53.87, Obama 44.90
Georgia (62.6% White, 28.5% Black) - McCain 52.10, Obama 46.90
Alabama (70.3% White, 25.9% Black) - McCain 60.32, Obama 38.74
North Carolina (70.2% White, 21.4% Black) - Obama 49.70, McCain 49.38
Virginia (70.2% White, 19.4% Black) - Obama 52.63, McCain 46.33
Tennessee (79.2% White, 16.3% Black) - McCain 56.85, Obama 41.79
Arkansas (78.6% White, 15.6% Black) - McCain 58.72, Obama 38.66
Florida (65.4% White, 14.2% Black) - Obama 50.91, McCain 48.10
Kentucky (89.3% White, 7.3% Black) - McCain 57.37, Obama 41.15
West Virginia (94.6% White, 3.1% Black) - McCain 55.60, Obama 42.51

[HAnnA MArin County]

Ignorant redneck conservatives embracing the religious right.

That's a large part of it, but I don't think Tennessee swung GOP this year because of race alone because if you look at 2006, Harold Ford Jr. almost won the open U.S. Senate seat and he won a significant number of these rural counties that swung so far away from Obama. Even in the primary, these rural counties went solidly and strongly for Hillary (she may actually have won Tennessee seeing as how it went both times for Bill). I don't know; it's an intriguing phenomenon. I think the Southernization of the Republican Party is helping Tennessee become redder in its political leanings, and in the rural areas, I'm sure the GOP's scare tactics of using God guns and gays to get their base out probably works wonders.

Lake County, the small county in the northwestern part of the state, is interesting as well because as far back as I can tell, it has gone Democratic except for this year. I believe that's Tiptonville, if memory serves me correctly.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I don't think Tennessee is doing trending Republican. Look at what will probably happen this November: the GOP stands very likely to pick up the Governor's Mansion as well as two, possibly three, U.S. House seats (TN-04, TN-06 and TN-08) and will probably expand their majorities in the state legislature. After November 2010, I think it will be safe to officially label Tennessee as a red state.