Which Carter states are now unwinnable for the Democrats?

[HAnnA MArin County]

West Virginia is definitely winnable for the Democrats, and Kentucky to a lesser extent; it just depends on the nominee. John Kerry and Barack Obama, two big city liberals from Boston and Chicago, were the worst fitting Democrats for these Appalachian states. If you look at West Virginia, Democrats control everything in the state: both U.S. Senate seats, two of the three U.S. House seats, the Governor's Mansions and all statewide elected offices and have supermajorities in the state legislature. I'd hardly classify West Virginia as unwinnable for the Democrats. If Democrats were to ever nominate a Southern WASP moderate populist, West Virginia would definitely be a safe state for the Democrats. Democrats can also still win Kentucky, but just like in West Virginia, Barack Obama and John Kerry were bad candidates for these states. Had Hillary been the nominee, she would have undoubtedly carried West Virginia and possibly Kentucky, two states that gave her overwhelming victories in the primaries. Arkansas is similar to West Virginia in that Democrats basically control everything there. The reason why the state swung so heavily GOP this year is pretty obvious - I just mentioned her name up above. So I'd say these three states are still winnable for the Democrats.

Tennessee and Louisiana, I'm not too sure of. If the demographics keep changing to benefits the Republicans, I don't think Democrats will be too competitive in these places. These were two of five states that swung more GOP in 2008, but I don't think the Clinton factor had a large part to do with it in these places, especially seeing as how Obama won Louisiana during the primaries, but I reckon after Hurricane Katrina, several of the state's African American voters in the New Orleans area relocated and probably never returned, a move that doesn't bode well for the Democrats. Louisiana is definitely trending more Republican, and Tennessee is a mystery to me. Obama did well in Memphis and Nashville but was pretty much hammered all throughout the rest of the state, even in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Middle and Northwestern Tennessee that gave huge support to Bill Clinton. I'm not naive; I'm sure racism had something to do with it, but Tennessee has gotten more and more Republican since they rejected their native son Al Gore in 2000, so I think it's something deeper than race in Tennessee. I'd categorize Tennessee and Louisiana as "Tossups" for the Democrats.

As for the states where I don't think Democrats stand a chance at winning, those are simple. Obviously the Deep South states of Mississippi and Alabama are not winnable for the Democrats anytime soon. These are both, as someone else mentioned, racially polarized states combined with the Dixie atmosphere and the Bible Belt, just makes it really hard for Democrats to have any success here at the federal level.

As for South Carolina and Georgia, I agree with some previous posters that they will soon turn into swing states. I read somewhere where South Carolina was the only Southern state where white voters swung more towards Obama in 2008, and as for Georgia, it was surprisingly close in 2008 because of the historic African American turnout, but that combined with the growing Atlanta area makes it definitely winnable for the Democrats. The key to winning Georgia, I think, is the Atlanta suburbs where Republicans always seem to rack up the numbers and offset the margins inside the cities where Democrats usually perform best here.