Closest Senate race?

[HAnnA MArin County]

Normally, I would say my home state of Missouri where elections are always close, but Robin Carnahan will easily win this seat. She has the Carnahan name which is a resounding force throughout Missouri (her father Mel was a very popular Governor) and in 2008 she received more votes, over 1.7 million, than any candidate in the state's history. Troublesome for Roy Blunt, should he receive the GOP nomination, is that he has the tainted "Blunt" named attached. Outside of Southwest Missouri, he will not do so well, as many Missourians will probably equate him to his highly unpopular son and former Governor Matt Blunt, who had the lowest approval ratings while in office. Carnahan is definitely the favorite in Missouri. Like I said, she will lose Southwest Missouri but will rack up the numbers in St. Louis and Kansas City and Columbia, and depending on how she does in the other rural parts of the state, namely Southeast Missouri in the Lead Belt and Bootheel, she will win.

As for the closest race, my money is on Kentucky right now. Jim Bunning just narrowly won in 2004 over Lt. Gov. Don Mongiardo by 1 percent the same year that George W. Bush carried the state by 20 points. Not very impressive. If the anti-Republican sentiment continues throughout the year and carries over into 2010, Mongiardo should defeat Bunning. For Mongiardo, I'd have him bring out the big guns (Bill and Hillary Clinton, both of whom are loved in the Bluegrass State) but he has to distance himself from Obama because Kentucky voters made it loud and clear that Obama is not for them in both the primary and general election. 

Either way, it's still very early.