With the Republican Party moving so far to the right and so many moderate Republicans (Arlen Specter ring a bell?) either leaving or being kicked out by the neoconservatives, it begs the question of what kind of Republican the GOP will nominate in 2008 to run against Obama. The economy is of the main concern. If the economy recovers, Republicans will be on the defensive because they have constantly and consistently been against Obama from Day 1 on the economy with the bailouts and economic stimulus bill. Their best case scenario would be for the economy to get worse (Obama fails, what the Rush Limbaugh crowd wants) and then to nominate a far right-wing conservative Republican like Bobby Jindal, Haley Barbour or Sarah Palin (God help us if either of them gets the nomination) who opposed accepting money from the stimulus bill for their own political gain. Expect them also to nominate someone with historical appeal to try to build on the excitement and significance of Obama's election as the first African American president (Jindal would be the first Indian president, Romney the first Mormon president, Palin the first female president which I would do everything in my power to prevent because she doesn't deserve that title like the current Secretary of State does). Regardless, I think they will nominate a conservative Republican. Ann Coulter, who I obviously disagree with but have respect for after she endorsed Hillary, I think said it best when she said that Republicans win when they nominate conservative Republicans, when they nominate moderate Republicans (Bob Dole, John McCain), they lose. I agree with this assessment, and since the party has moved so far to the right, I can almost guarantee that the nominee will be a conservative Republican who will represent everything opposite of Obama which is what the Republican Party seems to be, the party of NO.
If I had to pick right now, I'd say Jindal is who I think is leading the pact. Huckabee and Romney still have some baggage left from 2008, and Palin's star power is slowly but surely fading out. Because I'm new to the forum and don't know how to do all those fancy maps like everyone else on here, I'll just give an explanation of how I think the map would look in 2012 with an Obama-Jindal ticket regardless of Jindal's selection of VP and assuming that the economy recovers and Obama remains relatively popular (which is what I think will happen). Under these circumstances, I think Obama would carry all the states he carried in 2008 with the exception of Indiana. Indiana and North Carolina were the closest states that Obama carried in 2008, and with the demographic changes in North Carolina, I think North Carolina would be easier for Obama to win than Indiana. As for the tossups, I'd throw in Georgia but still give it to Jindal because of all the social conservatives in the rural predominantly white parts of the state that overpowers Atlanta and all the other cities. I think Indiana would be the only Obama state in 2008 that would flip back to the red/Jindal column in 2012. I just think Indiana in 2008 was a fluke phenomenon. Now, as for the McCain states in 2008 to flip to Obama, I think there will be three: Missouri (McCain just narrowly won by 0.14 percent), Arizona (minus John McCain/favorite son on the ticket, it is becoming a battleground state with the booming Hispanic population), and Montana (another really close state, why I don't know but they seem to love Obama up there). He may make another run at winning the Dakotas, but I think they will stay red.
Just my own personal assessment. Please feel free to refute; I love constructive criticism.
