HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
YaBB God
Posts: 4,038
|
|
« on: March 17, 2015, 12:05:15 AM » |
|
It seems that Democrats have already secured the 25-29 year old subgroup of the youth vote. If you look at many of the exit polls even from the disastrous 2014 elections, the Democratic candidate almost always won the 25-29 year olds while losing the 18-24 year olds. As someone in the 25-29 year old range (speaking from personal experience), it'll be very hard for this age to go Republican. We grew up during the Clinton years when the economy was strong and then came of age during the Bush era, which made many of us anti-Republican. Obama's [alleged] "coolness" appeal in 2008 helped solidify the current 25-29 year olds in the Democratic camp. 2012 certainly didn't help with Romney going from a Massachusetts moderate to a "severely conservative" candidate on every issue. I think my age group will support Hillary in 2016 by strong margins, inspired by the historical aspect of her campaign but also out of nostalgia for the good ole days. True, social issues hurt the GOP with younger voters, but there's also a sentiment that the current Republican Party is anti-science and the climate change denial doesn't do them any favors when many younger voters do believe that climate change is real. Abortion is always going to be a 50-50 issue. They should fold on marriage equality and stop all the draconian "religious freedom" bills that are passing the GOP-controlled state legislatures, because that's only going to make them come across as more anti-gay and homophobic than they already are with young voters, who overwhelmingly support LGBT rights.
Here are some of the 2014 exit polls that I could find for the youth vote (for the U.S. Senate): ALASKA 18-24: Sullivan 51, Begich 43 25-29: Begich 50, Sullivan 39 (Begich's best age group)
ARKANSAS 18-24: Cotton 48, Pryor 47 (Cotton's worst/Pryor's best age group) 25-29: Cotton 53, Pryor 44
GEORGIA 18-24: Nunn 61, Perdue 37 (Nunn's best age group) 25-29: Nunn 55, Perdue 43
IOWA 18-24: Braley 51, Ernst 46 25-29: Braley 52, Ernst 45 (Braley's best age group)
KANSAS 18-24: Orman 54, Roberts 43 25-29: Orman 60, Roberts 36 (Orman's best age group)
KENTUCKY 18-24: McConnell 53, Grimes 42 25-29: Grimes 52, McConnell 43 (Grimes's best age group)
LOUISIANA (Pre-Runoff) 18-24: Landrieu 47, Cassidy 38, Maness 12 25-29: Landrieu 53, Cassidy 35, Maness 7 (Landrieu's best age group)
MICHIGAN 18-24: Peters 54, Land 40 25-29: Peters 59, Land 34 (Peters's best age group)
MINNESOTA 18-24: Not Polled 25-29: Franken 61, McFadden 36 (Franken's best age group)
NORTH CAROLINA 18-24: Hagan 47, Tillis 44 25-29: Hagan 59, Tillis 34 (Hagan's best age group)
NEW HAMPSHIRE 18-24: Shaheen 54, Brown 46 25-29: Shaheen 62, Brown 36 (Shaheen's best age group)
TEXAS 18-24: Not Polled 25-29: Cornyn 52, Alameel 35
VIRGINIA 18-24: Warner 54, Gillespie 41 25-29: Not Polled
|