Chile 2009-2010

[Daniel Adams]

Lavín turned against Pinochet sometime in 2005. He discovered populism is more palatable to voters, so, despite praising Pinochet's economic reforms back in the 1980s, he now supports the creation of a "Social Ministry" (Ministerio Social) to oversee the Finance Ministry. The free market is cruel and evil, he's apparently decided. He has also declared himself a bacheletista and, overall, has done a great job of alienating his former supporters in the Right. He's even toned down his social conservatism despite being an Opus Dei supernumerary; he now supports gay civil unions, for instance. Lavín, a well-nigh sycophantic supporter of Piñera, is a senatorial candidate for the Sixth Circumscription (Valparaíso); it's a tossup at the moment.

Piñera himself was never much of a right-winger. It's mildly amusing how he's the only candidate in the race who hasn't promised any tax cuts (even Arrate supports a 4% decrease in the sales tax). His main proposals in virtually all areas involve more spending and he has enthusiastically backed Lavín's asinine "Social Ministry" idea. Also, much to the UDI's chagrin, he has made campaign ads pointedly expressing his support for gay civil unions. Not surprising, given that Piñera comes from an old Christian Democrat family and campaigned against Pinochet in 1988. He has always been something of a right-winger in name only. As a senator, he often voted for many of the Concertación's laws that rolled back some of Pinochet's economic reforms.

Pinochet's grandson, Rodrigo García (who was with Pinochet in the 1986 assassination attempt), broke with Piñera's Coalición and is running for deputy as an independent.

Bachelet's meteoric rise is indeed baffling. Most of it has to do with the fact that she's successfully remained aloof from most political squabbles, even within her own administration, so no one blames her for anything. Most of her low approvals had to do with the disastrous implementation of Santiago's new transportation system; voters have becomes inured to it by now and it's not much of an issue. Even the main leaders of the right (i.e. Piñera and Lavín) have nothing but praise for Bachelet.

[Daniel Adams]

The last poll of the race, by El Mercurio, confirms Piñera is well ahead:

Piñera: 38%
Frei: 23%
Enriquez-Ominami: 20%
Arrate: 7%

In a Piñera vs. Frei second round, the former is up 43-34. Against Ominami, Piñera wins by 41-35.

[Daniel Adams]

I've always thought of the UDI as the most right wing major party in the world, counting both social and economic issues.

They have veered to the left (or the center, if you prefer) on economic issues since the end of Pinochet's government. I think most Republicans are more economically right-wing than UDI: the UDI seldom, if ever, makes calls for reduction in spending or taxes, for example. Quite the contrary, most of the UDI voted in favor of the last sales tax hike. Many in the UDI also support Lavín's "Social Ministry" idea.

The UDI is much more conservative in social issues, of course, but they are not as politically relevant in Chile as they are in the US (although that's been changing). The UDI is certainly not extremely right-wing socially in the Chilean political spectrum. There is a lot of opposition to abortion and gay marriage even within the Concertación.