Work to win it in 2022. It's a favorable field for Dems. It's favorable enough a 2018 scenario could occur where Dems lose a ton of House seats, but still gain a few (or at least have no losses) in the Senate.
The only seats they have to defend that might be competitive are Arizona (assuming Kelly wins), Colorado, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Whoever the Georgia 2020 special winner is will be up again as well. Meanwhile Republicans have to defend North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Florida, Kansas (these last few are likely not competitive but...a man can dream) Missouri, South Carolina, and Louisiana. Plus, Alaska will be a wildcard due to Murkowski's high Republican unfavorability despite a history of winning even when she's lost the Republican nomination.
We don't have the same low hanging fruit in 2022 that Rs had in 2018 though. Those potential pick up opportunities are in at best states with an even PVI.
Yeah, the equivalent of Democratic incumbents in North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, Indiana and Missouri would be if there were Republican incumbents in California, New York, Maryland, Illinois and Oregon.
In terms of R-held seats, I think only Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina would be realistic targets. And in a Biden midterm, Democrats would honestly be lucky to win even one.
Wisconsin: If Johnson retires and Mike Gallagher runs, Democrats can kiss that seat goodbye. That man is an insanely strong candidate.
Florida: If Florida Democrats couldn't even reelect their own incumbent in a Trump midterm, how on earth will they beat Marco?
Ohio: Aside from Obama and Sherrod Brown, no Democrat has won a statewide race in Ohio this decade, and I don't think Ohio Democrats have a candidate of Brown's caliber waiting in the wings. Plus Portman is a machine when it comes to campaigning and fundraising.
Iowa: Chuck Grassley is Jesus in this state.
Every other state is just too red for Democrats to win in a Biden midterm.
This is strong analysis. A Biden midterm probably gives us a range of +2 to -2, weighted towards the later. Pennsylvania is a possible pick-up no matter what - the Dem bench is extremely strong, and a Toomey retirement probably makes it a true toss-up. And 2022 Georgia might just "be there" where the inelastic nonwhite + white liberal vote has just become greater than the conservative vote. The races you listed as being unlikely in a Biden midterm are all too heavy lifts, and I think you can add NC to that list - the red lean is durable and it won't flip in a decent republican year.
The lucky thing for Democrats is that their exposure is low. Only Nevada and NH could be vulnerable, and I am deeply skeptical that CCM goes down, even in a bad year.
Edit: Forgot that Sen. Kelly is going to be on the ballot again. AZ GOP can probably find a stronger candidate that McSally but it might not matter.
