Ranking Harris's Potential Running Mates

[Heebie Jeebie]

I know Biden is likely to be the nominee again in 2024.  But supposing he's unable to run for re-election and Harris gets the nomination, who would be the best running mate for her?  My rankings:

1.  Andy Beshear - This presupposes he wins re-election in 2023 of course, a factor I'm bullish on.  The national economy is going to be humming, and he's a talented politician.  The thing that really makes him compelling, though, is that once his governorship is over, there's really nowhere else for him to go except into the next Democratic administration--he's certainly not going to be the next Senator from Kentucky.  But on the presidential ticket, he's the perfect "balance" candidate for Harris--an overt appeal to the Midwest/Upper South and exurban constituencies. 

2.  Jon Ossoff - This presupposes Stacey Abrams wins the governorship in 2022, a development I'm not overly confident in.  Regardless, running mates typically don't have much impact on election results, but it's not crazy to think that Ossoff could help push Harris over the edge in a tight race in Georgia, a very big state. 

3.  Jared Polis - As a governor, he brings a DC-outsider appeal, but he also has experience as a multi-term Congressional Rep.  He's gay, but I doubt that would have any impact on the race besides prompting positive cable news coverage for a couple of cycles before disappearing as an issue.  It certainly didn't hurt him in Colorado, a fairly moderate state.

4.  Martin Heinrich - New Mexico is a pretty small state and Heinrich isn't exactly a major player in the Senate, but he looks the part of VP and wouldn't really offend anybody either.  Boring but safe.

5.  Chris Murphy - Similar to Heinrich, but his ties to Connecticut's financial industry could make some lefties nervous.  He's a solid progressive, though, so there shouldn't be too much complaint.  Another boring but safe choice.

Wild Cards:  Brian Schatz, Mark Kelly, Tim Walz, Michael Bennet, J.B. Pritzker

Any thoughts?

[Heebie Jeebie]

Beshear isn't running until 2028, he always said he wanted to fill two terms as Gov due to Covid

If Harris offered him the veep position, there's no way in hell he'd say no.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Ossoff > Sherrod Brown > Josh Shapiro (if he wins PA Gov, though I'm skeptical that he would accept) > Beshear > Jared Polis > Martin Heinrich > Brian Schatz > Pete Buttigieg

Sherrod Brown is both too old and more useful as an incumbent Senator.  Shapiro is great but you don't go from little more than a year as governor to running for vice president.  You're right that Buttigieg is bottom of the heap, though.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Buttigieg and Roy Cooper are definitely on that list.

Now that he's sold his house in South Bend, Buttigieg needs to move to Arlington so he can run for governor of Virginia in 2025.  It's a little thin for a vice presidential resume, but three years as governor could be enough to make him a credible running mate in 2028. 

[Heebie Jeebie]

Buttigieg and Roy Cooper are definitely on that list.

Now that he's sold his house in South Bend, Buttigieg needs to move to Arlington so he can run for governor of Virginia in 2025.  It's a little thin for a vice presidential resume, but three years as governor could be enough to make him a credible running mate in 2028. 

I don't think Buttigieg would be viewed as inexperienced necessarily, even if he didn't run governor. By 2024, he will have been one of the most visible Democrats in the country for five years. By 2028, nine years. Regardless of his actual political experience, voters will be completely familiar with him and won't view him as a new/inexperienced. Mitt Romney, for example, was only governor for four years. Despite having a relatively slim resume in public service, no one questioned Romney's experience when he was the nominee in 2012. Buttigieg will have been mayor, secretary of Transportation, and will have universal name recognition.

You make some good points, but I don't think the Romney comparison really holds up.  For one, a Republican winning the governorship of a liberal state like Massachusetts is really impressive.  (It's impressive that Charlie Baker did it, too.)  For two, Democratic voters just have different expectations of their candidates than Republican voters do.  When's the last time the Democratic ticket featured someone who hadn't won a vice presidential, gubernatorial, or Senate race?  1984, I think?  And we know how that went over.  Shriver in '72?  Again, look how well that went.  The Democratic base (particularly the black community) values a demonstrable ability to run a successful statewide election.  Buttigieg has many talents, but winning elections isn't really one of them (so far). 

[Heebie Jeebie]

I know Biden is likely to be the nominee again in 2024.  But supposing he's unable to run for re-election and Harris gets the nomination, who would be the best running mate for her?  My rankings:

1.  Andy Beshear - This presupposes he wins re-election in 2023 of course, a factor I'm bullish on.  The national economy is going to be humming, and he's a talented politician.  The thing that really makes him compelling, though, is that once his governorship is over, there's really nowhere else for him to go except into the next Democratic administration--he's certainly not going to be the next Senator from Kentucky.  But on the presidential ticket, he's the perfect "balance" candidate for Harris--an overt appeal to the Midwest/Upper South and exurban constituencies.

In the event of his re-election, wouldn't he be better suited for a 2028 ticket?  I am not comfortable nominating someone who just won an election to a separate electoral office.    

I don't think so.  In this scenario, Beshear wins re-election in 2023, then joins the national ticket in 2024.  If Harris loses, he goes back to being governor, finishes his term, and runs for the presidential nomination in 2028.  If Harris wins, Jacqueline Coleman serves as Kentucky governor for three years and gets to run in 2027 as an incumbent.  It's win-win.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Tim Walz would be good.

He'd be a good pick for 2024, but after that he becomes too old to really be a good choice.

[Heebie Jeebie]

My earlier thoughts have changed on this question.  Now, I think that in the unlikely event Harris is the 2024 nominee, her best running mate would be Michael Bennet.  In 2028, her best running mate would be Chris Murphy.

Some explanation: the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the looming reconciliation bill have demonstrated the importance of legislative experience, and both Bennet and Murphy will have relatively long Senate tenures in their favor, while each is also young enough to be the nominee after Harris has run her two presidential campaigns.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I don't think she can pick a Jewish running mate...like Shapiro or Ossoff.

Her husband is Jewish, if she picks a Jewish running mate, she runs the risk of people feeling that the cabinet would be "Jewish influenced"

In a just world, if Tim Ryan was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2022, he would be a good choice, Sherrod Brown as well

Beshear and Walz would be good

She probably needs an attack dog VP, because the GOP will go after her daily.

No, no, no!  No Senators from red states!  Any Ohio Senator is a nonstarter. 

[Heebie Jeebie]

Of the three Colorado people, who would be the best running mate?
Polis, Bennet, Hickenlooper?
All of them are decently safe running mates that Harris would atleast consider

I think Hickenlooper is too old for consideration.  In 2024, I think Bennet would be the better choice between the other two.  In 2028, Polis.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I don't think she should pick Cooper---he is too mild-mannered and old to be VP.

Won't Ossoff be good?

I think Ossoff is more valuable as an incumbent Senator from a toss-up state. 

[Heebie Jeebie]

I don't think she should pick Cooper---he is too mild-mannered and old to be VP.

Won't Ossoff be good?

Cooper is only a year older than Biden was in 2008 when he was picked for VP. Biden would be 81 by than too, so are doesn’t really matter here

Of course age matters.  Biden, as much as I like him, was a bad choice for running mate in 2008, and his relatively advanced age is partly why Clinton was preferred as Obama's successor.   Frankly, while I'm glad he beat Trump, Biden is too old to be president now.  The uncertainly surrounding his fitness for the job is a drag on his party politically.

I think a good rule of thumb is that a first-time veep candidate should never be older than 60 on election day.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I don't think she should pick Cooper---he is too mild-mannered and old to be VP.

Won't Ossoff be good?

Cooper is only a year older than Biden was in 2008 when he was picked for VP. Biden would be 81 by than too, so are doesn’t really matter here

Of course age matters.  Biden, as much as I like him, was a bad choice for running mate in 2008, and his relatively advanced age is partly why Clinton was preferred as Obama's successor.   Frankly, while I'm glad he beat Trump, Biden is too old to be president now.  The uncertainly surrounding his fitness for the job is a drag on his party politically.

I think a good rule of thumb is that a first-time veep candidate should never be older than 60 on election day.

What if a VP candidate is 60?
Tim Walz, Mark Kelly?
Also, as others have mentioned, could some relative newcomers be a good running mate, like Collin Allred or Jason Crow?

Sure.  For me, 60 is just a rule of thumb, but I'd need to have some very compelling reason to back anyone older than that.  And I'm even more skeptical of "newcomers," especially those who haven't risen to the Senate or maybe a governorship.  I guess I'm just an old-school institutionalist who thinks the main job of the vice president is to be prepared to be president.  Geriatrics and neophytes typically don't fit the bill. 

[Heebie Jeebie]

Everybody who keeps mention Andy Beshear without mentioning that he favors some (albeit light) abortion restrictions and ranking him as a top choice for the democratic vp nomination is delusional.

I like Mark Kelly best myself. I don't think anybody has mentioned Ben Ray Lujan, but he might be a dark horse for blatant demographic reasons.

I think Beshear's position on abortion is one of his strongest selling points.  Harris is (correctly) viewed as very far left, particularly on social issues like abortion.  Having a moderate like Beshear on the ticket might reassure a lot of skeptical voters that there's room for differing perspectives in the Democratic Party. 

Also, I like Mark Kelly too, but I think he's infinitely more valuable as an incumbent Senator from a toss-up state.  You gotta weigh the costs against the benefits.

[Heebie Jeebie]

I think Beshear's position on abortion is one of his strongest selling points.  Harris is (correctly) viewed as very far left, particularly on social issues like abortion.  Having a moderate like Beshear on the ticket might reassure a lot of skeptical voters that there's room for differing perspectives in the Democratic Party.

It won't reassure any skeptical voters, only highlight Harris' position because she is top of the ticket. Far more importantly, the party won't unify internally. The first women to run for president is not running with anyone seen even remotely as anti-abortion. Just not happening.

You might be right, but I'm skeptical.  For one, I don't think it will be possible to increase the salience of Harris's position on this issue: socially conservative voters are going to be constantly reminded that she's "pro-abortion" regardless.  Having Beshear on the ticket wouldn't amplify or diminish that critique, but it might give voters a model of how it doesn't have to be a deal-breaker for those who are pro-life.  That's important, because unlike Republicans, Democrats can't rely solely on their base for election wins--they have to appeal to moderate, or at least non-ideological, voters.

For what it's worth, though, I'm personally no longer sold on Beshear as the best veep option.  Now, I'm thoroughly in the Bennet in '24/Murphy in '28 camp.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Here’s an outside option: Ritchie Torres.

He checks diversity boxes (gay, Latino, black); is a progressive who could help win over more left-leaning voters while not being a divisive/controversial Squad member; and is young, representing a new generation of leadership.

All the stuff you cite in his favor actually sounds like a strong case against him to me.  Honestly, I think "outside options" like this are typically outside for good reason.