Some very odd takes here.
-Kelly Ayotte is not winning anything in NH.
-Tulsi Gabbard is not winning anything in HI.
-Paul LePage is not winning anything in ME with ranked choice voting.
-Charlie Baker is safe if he runs for reelection.
-Kansas and Wisconsin start as Lean D or toss-up but in no way are Kelly / Evers at an automatic disadvantage.
-If Finkenauer vacates her House seat for a high-risk statewide run, it would probably be for Senate rather than Governor (but hopefully neither).
-MLG starts in a much better position in NM than "Tilt D"
Edited because I realized RCV only applies in gubernatorial primary, not the general. Still feels exceptionally unlikely that LePage would take out Mills.
I think you're seriously overestimating Kelly's chances in Kansas. She only won in 2018 because 1.) Brownback was a disaster, 2.) Trump was an anchor on Republicans all across the country, 3.) she was running against an extremist in Kobach, and 4.) Orman ran as a spoiler. Even as an incumbent, if she faces a reasonable challenger she is going to be wiped out.
