Orser67
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,946
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« on: December 10, 2022, 01:56:56 PM » |
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I think the difference in this particular time period primarily comes down to the unusually strong 2002 Republican midterm election, which itself was primarily the result of a black swan event that has little to do with the inherent strength of either party. I think there's a pretty good chance that a normal midterm sees Democrats win the House in 2002 and keep it in 2004, despite Bush's re-election (much like 1996 and 2012). Flip those two elections, and the "score" is 9-9.
Republicans also had some luck with a well-timed wave election in 2010, which may have helped them keep the House in 2012 and 2016.
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