538 model & poll tracker thread

[Orser67]

What you're seeing is JSON data. I'm not sure exactly what 538's structure looks like, but my guess is that they have one or more software developers who don't have much to do with the predictions/models but who are in charge of setting up the website and the UI. My guess is that the data you're seeing has nothing to do with the actual predictions, but is just test data used to verify that the website is working correctly. In other words, they're probably just trying to get the web page set up so that it's ready to go when Silver and et. al are ready to release it.

Source: am software engineer

[Orser67]

Biden's national lead now over ten points in the 538 tracker:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1314556769226682369

I think this is the first time he's had a lead of at least ten points nationally?

[Orser67]

Here's 538's national tracker for 2016. Purely in terms of margin, the chart does give some hope to the GOP in that Clinton had a 7-point lead at one point in October. But, as has been discussed a lot on this forum, Biden has a more stable lead and has almost always been above 50% since mid-June, whereas Clinton peaked at 46% in late October.