1 million more Texans have registered to vote since Beto/Cruz race

[Orser67]

well given how the GOP openly flouts the law and is running amok like a criminal enterprise, I'm not surprised that blue avatars here are feeding off of it. but seriously, if Dems take Texas, which these types of numbers make seem less ridiculous, the GOP agenda is dead in its tracks.

If Texas falls, so does the country.  If roughly half the country becomes ignored at the federal level election after election they will lose faith in democracy.  A democracy can't survive in a corrosive environment like that long term. 

Frankly, it sounds like you have already lost faith in democracy.

I'll say this.  America has not yet gotten to the point of being a 1 party state, not even close.  I hope that isn't our destiny.  But if we are destined to become that Id much rather it be a right wing one party state than a left wing one. TX>CA

Even if TX does go blue, and even if that does give Democrats a huge advantage in winning/keeping control of the House and the presidency, the Senate would still lean pretty strongly towards the Republican Party.

[Orser67]

well given how the GOP openly flouts the law and is running amok like a criminal enterprise, I'm not surprised that blue avatars here are feeding off of it. but seriously, if Dems take Texas, which these types of numbers make seem less ridiculous, the GOP agenda is dead in its tracks.

If Texas falls, so does the country.  If roughly half the country becomes ignored at the federal level election after election they will lose faith in democracy.  A democracy can't survive in a corrosive environment like that long term. 

Frankly, it sounds like you have already lost faith in democracy.

I'll say this.  America has not yet gotten to the point of being a 1 party state, not even close.  I hope that isn't our destiny.  But if we are destined to become that Id much rather it be a right wing one party state than a left wing one. TX>CA

Even if TX does go blue, and even if that does give Democrats a huge advantage in winning/keeping control of the House and the presidency, the Senate would still lean pretty strongly towards the Republican Party.

Not sure it would lean strongly enough in that scenario.  If Texas is flipping then Arizona is too.  With Georgia and North Carolina becoming more competitive, the Senate could become more balanced. 

Those are all larger than average states.  Democrats need a breakthrough in places like Kansas and Alaska and to keep Montana in play to really balance the Senate out.  Also, losing any significant ground in New England would be catastrophic in the Senate. 

I realize they are larger than average but it would still bring them to 50+ votes unless they lose ground in other places like New England.  I don't really think they're losing as much ground in New England as people here seem to believe though.

West/SW (CA, WA, OR, HI, AZ, NM, NV, TX) = 8 states / 16 senators
New England = 6 states / 12 senators
Mid-Atlantic lean Dem states (NY, NJ, DE, MD, VA) = 5 states / 10 senators
Changing Southern States (GA, NC) = 2 states / 4 senators
Illinois = 2 senators

That would be 44 right there if my math is correct.  There are also presumably competitive states like MN, WI, MI, PA, FL.

The Senate would still lean Republican relative to the national vote but Democrats almost always win the national vote anyways (6 out of 7 of the last Presidential elections).

NV, AZ, NC, GA, and TX becoming solid Democratic states, while all currently solid Democratic states stay solidly Democratic, is a worst-case scenario for Republicans that goes far beyond the scenario of TX becoming a solidly Democratic state.

But even assuming that happens, I still count:

44 Democratic-state senators
18 battleground-state senators (ME, NH, PA, MI, WI, MN, IA, FL, OH*)
38 Republican-state senators

Assuming a Democratic president is generally in office, Republicans would have a strong chance of controlling the Senate most of the time since they would benefit from mid-term waves.