Would the GOP win 40 states with a reasonable national win

[Orser67]

Trump lost the popular vote by 2 points but won 30 states. A uniform swing of 9 points to the GOP (and btw, I wouldn't call a 7 point win a "reasonable national win", I would call it a near-landslide) would add:

-NH: easy pickup in this scenario
-MN: a tough state for national Republicans given their apparent low-ceiling-but-high-floor, but in this case I think they easily win it
-NV: easy pickup in this scenario
-ME: They haven't won this in years, and it probably trends a bit back towards the Democrats in the next election, but given that Clinton won it by just 3 points, I think the GOP takes it
-CO: This is where things start to get interesting. Colorado is obviously a lean d state at this point, but unless it really swings to the left in 2020, Republicans would win it with a 7-point national victory
-VA: Pretty much the same as Colorado
-NM: This is where you start getting into landslide territory. Republicans did win New Mexico in 2004, but since then New Mexico has pretty much rejected the Republican Party with the exception of Susan Martinez. I think that this would be a tossup in a 7-point Republican victory.

The next states are Oregon and Delaware, each of which Clinton won by about 11 points. It's certainly possible that we could see one of them flip in the way that Indiana did in 2008, but I doubt the GOP would win more than one of these states.

So yeah, I think the GOP would have a tough time winning more than 37 states.