2018 Midterms...With Different Senate Maps?

[Orser67]

Class 2: I think Collins (ME) would be ok if she ran, but Gardner (CO) would be an underdog and Tillis (NC) would face a tough challenge. Daines (MT), Ernst (IA), Sullivan (AK), and Perdue (GA) would all be plausible targets. I don't think Democrats have a serious chance of winning a Senate race in Kentucky in 2018, regardless of circumstances. With Trump in office, Democrats would be heavily favored to hold each of their own seats, even with retirements. I think Dems would probably pick up a couple seats net.

Class 3: Rubio (FL), Burr (NC), Toomey (PA), Johnson (WI), and McCain's seat (AZ) would all be competitive. Portman (OH), Isakson (GA), Young (IN), Blunt (MO) and maybe Grassley (IA) would be plausible targets. Murkowski (AK) could also be a target if there's a three-person race. With Trump in office, Democrats would be heavily favored to hold each of their own seats, even with retirements. I think Democrats would probably pick up about five seats.