3 Precincts remaining for the Madison Mayor primary:
Paul R. Soglin (NON) 28.8% 9,948
Satya Rhodes-Conway (NON) 27.6% 9,530
Mo Cheeks (NON) 23.1% 7,972
Raj Shukla (NON) 18.6% 6,410
Nick Hart (NON) 1.0% 359
WRITE-IN (NON) 0.9% 311
Really weak result for Soglin.
So, the general election will be between Soglin and Rhodes-Conway. (For those posters not from here, it's a "top-two" primary, which combined with the nonpartisan aspect basically just means that it's a two-round system with the "general" being the runoff).
I'd expect Rhodes-Conway to win the majority of Cheeks and Shukla voters (although Cheeks is less obvious than Shukla).
The trouble is that you can't just reallocate voters since the general will have higher turnout. Soglin voters will emerge who are basically satisfied with how things are going but didn't bother to turn out for the primary. But it's hard to predict how many.
