Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Linus Van Pelt]

Northern Gateway is likely not happening, due to Aboriginal title issues. So, this is all probably symbolic politics.

[Linus Van Pelt]

If anything the polls today suggest that the PCs are losing even more ground and that Wildrose will come in second. This makes it immeasurably more difficult for the PCs to stage a 2012 style comeback

It's today's polls that matter, not yesterday's (if we want to compare to 2012). If we see no movement today, then an NDP majority is pretty much assured.

Polls are not that accurate.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Yeah, this is the most interesting thing in Canadian politics for a while. Even if the polls are basically correct, the swings to the NDP are likely non-uniform, making for an unpredictable map.

[Linus Van Pelt]

It's very likely a majority, so it doesn't matter, but it's really irresponsible of the media to project "NDP government, we're not sure whether it's minority or majority". No wonder low-info voters treat coalitions as some sort of black magic.