electoral map after 2020-guess

[Person Man]

Attention everyone: guesses this far out mean absolutely nothing.

Hell, before Katrina, everyone thought that every map would be like 2000-2004 forever, with the Ds gradually losing Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania...basically, they would be down to...urmm... 204 EVs or somtin..and just be the Antisouth of the 21st Century.

[Person Man]

2020 may be a new Era of Good Feeling with the demise of the Republican Party. The more interesting divide may happen in 2024 after the Democratic Party splits as it did within a few years after the disappearance of the Federalists and Whigs.

Conservative and Labor?

Christian Democrats and Social Democrats?

Conservatives and  Social Democrats?

What is to say that the electoral college, or at least the winner-take-all system. won't be abolished by Constitutional amendment, or that an interstate compound ("such and such states will vote for the winners of the popular vote") won't effectively give the election to the winner of the popular vote?

The GOP looks as if it is in a death spiral -- one far harder to extricate itself from than the GOP was in in the 1930s. The GOP endured one of the most lopsided electoral defeats in 1936 after economic bumbling that came close to putting the capitalist system in mortal peril.  That was bad enough, but add the pervasive corruption and dictatorial tendencies of the GOP clique of at least 2001-2006, that George W. Bush is likely to become even more a non-person than Hoover, and things could get so bad that the real alignment occurs with the split of the ultimate Big Tent Party that can win overwhelming victories for a few years.

The Senate losses for the GOP in 2006 and 2008 show little sign of reversal in 2010. Those losses could include defections as well as defeats.

Watch the 2012 election for President to see if Obama picks up the states that he got clobbered in in 2008 but Clinton won at least once (AR, LA, KY, WV, TN, GA) likely to move together and the states that haven't voted for a Democratic nominee since Carter in 1976 (TX, MS, AL, SC)... then it could be time to write the last chapter of the Party of Lincoln, the penultimate chapter being the time in which it adopted the suicidal "majority of a majority" strategy... of Vladimir Lenin.    

Everyone remember, this is how ridiculous you sound when you predict the collapse of one of the parties (no offense, it's the prediction that's silly).

Attention everyone: guesses this far out mean absolutely nothing.

Hell, before Katrina, everyone thought that every map would be like 2000-2004 forever, with the Ds gradually losing Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania...basically, they would be down to...urmm... 204 EVs or somtin..and just be the Antisouth of the 21st Century.

Ironically, proving the first guy's mentality wrong, the Democrats did end up losing those states. What some people seemed to miss, but lots of people in this thread correctly predicted, was that they would balance those out with Western and "New South" gains.

The Democrats will need to balance out those loses to win in 2020. It looks less likely that the Democrats will have a "restoration" like they did with Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton in future elections. For 2024 on, Democrats will have to cobble up something new and there will be opportunities to do so with 5G and the pandemic altering migration patterns. As an anecdotal example, For the first time in five years, I might stay somewhere for awhile because I am not needed in a particular place.