More on a Hillary Comback [Michael Barone does the delegate math]

[Person Man]

Too bad its not going to happen. Hillary NEVER won 60% of the vote. She couldn't even when 60 in New York!

[Person Man]

Who do you think will have the pledged delegate advantage after Pennsylvania?

[Person Man]

So Obama is looking strong in PA and TX. Will OH and WI be enough to offset his gains so far?

Where do you predict that Obama will be in terms of his advantage on Hillary?

[Person Man]

I don't think Hillary should get too excited about Indiana either, the state is almost the same as Missouri demographically except whites are more Republican, meaning blacks take up a higher percentage of the Democratic electorate. Obama probably can't win it, but Hillary's edge in delegates won't be higher than single digits.

Uh...  I agree about the Texas stuff, but this makes no sense.

Indiana's whites are more Republican - that's news to me, bucko.  Truthfully, Indiana is a lot more like Ohio than Missouri.  There's always been a strong industrial/manufacturing base - Missouri has little of that.  True, the suburbs around Indianapolis are quite Republican - but the rest of the state - no.
Another important number:  Missouri - 11.2% black, Indiana 8.3% black.

Then again, it balences out with more whites being goppers. Therefore, there will be fewer white as well, meaning blacks will probably represent at the same levels....and I don't know how there can be anything more GOPPER than rural Indiana.

[Person Man]

I don't think Hillary should get too excited about Indiana either, the state is almost the same as Missouri demographically except whites are more Republican, meaning blacks take up a higher percentage of the Democratic electorate. Obama probably can't win it, but Hillary's edge in delegates won't be higher than single digits.

Uh...  I agree about the Texas stuff, but this makes no sense.

Indiana's whites are more Republican - that's news to me, bucko.  Truthfully, Indiana is a lot more like Ohio than Missouri.  There's always been a strong industrial/manufacturing base - Missouri has little of that.  True, the suburbs around Indianapolis are quite Republican - but the rest of the state - no.
Another important number:  Missouri - 11.2% black, Indiana 8.3% black.

Then again, it balences out with more whites being goppers. Therefore, there will be fewer white as well, meaning blacks will probably represent at the same levels....and I don't know how there can be anything more GOPPER than rural Indiana.

Uh...  The St. Louis suburbs are not that greatly different from the Indianapolis suburbs in terms of voting habits - and actually in terms of overall votes, the Indianapolis suburbs are simply less overall votes.

If you think rural Indiana is GOP heartland, I'd advise you to start rethinking.

LOL

Just look at the 2004 map!



Maybe around the Ohio River where Bush was kept under 60...but in many places he surged past 70!

[Person Man]

I wonder if Hillary will pick Ed Rendell to be her veep after a long primary and him delivering it. He will be able to shore support in the rust belt. He's popular enough and Ohio/Pennsylvania matter. His influence could work through out the midwest. The problem would be that McCain could win Oregon but with Ohio and Iowa, who needs Oregon?

I don't think Hillary should get too excited about Indiana either, the state is almost the same as Missouri demographically except whites are more Republican, meaning blacks take up a higher percentage of the Democratic electorate. Obama probably can't win it, but Hillary's edge in delegates won't be higher than single digits.

Uh...  I agree about the Texas stuff, but this makes no sense.

Indiana's whites are more Republican - that's news to me, bucko.  Truthfully, Indiana is a lot more like Ohio than Missouri.  There's always been a strong industrial/manufacturing base - Missouri has little of that.  True, the suburbs around Indianapolis are quite Republican - but the rest of the state - no.
Another important number:  Missouri - 11.2% black, Indiana 8.3% black.

Then again, it balences out with more whites being goppers. Therefore, there will be fewer white as well, meaning blacks will probably represent at the same levels....and I don't know how there can be anything more GOPPER than rural Indiana.

Uh...  The St. Louis suburbs are not that greatly different from the Indianapolis suburbs in terms of voting habits - and actually in terms of overall votes, the Indianapolis suburbs are simply less overall votes.

If you think rural Indiana is GOP heartland, I'd advise you to start rethinking.

LOL

Just look at the 2004 map!



Maybe around the Ohio River where Bush was kept under 60...but in many places he surged past 70!

Hey, idiot, just because people vote Republican doesn't mean that they're registered Republican. This occurs all over the place, some people haven't updated their voter registration since the 1950s. It's the same reason very Republican counties in northern Florida went for Edwards, old rascist Dixiecrats who now vote Republican going to the voting booth and finding out that they're registered Democrats.

If you stop with the petty insults, you will see that they may take a dim view for voting for a woman as well. They may just stay home and why would they vote in the primary if they are going to vote in GOP in GE? That's absurd.

[Person Man]

We also got to look beyond Indy. What about Kentucky, Wva, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and North Carolina? It could be that Hillary will have to pull ahead Pennsylvania amongst regular delegates to be nominated.  How could Indiana and Ohio be more for Hilldawg than Tennessee or how could Texas be more for HillDawg than Arizona or New Mexico?

[Person Man]

We also got to look beyond Indy. What about Kentucky, Wva, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and North Carolina? It could be that Hillary will have to pull ahead Pennsylvania amongst regular delegates to be nominated.

No, I think the May/June primaries are, on balance, more favorable to her than him.  Pulling ahead in pledged delegates (sans MI/FL) by the end of April seems nearly impossible for Clinton.  If she's going to (eventually) catch up in pledged delegates, she'll need the May/June primaries to do it.

I don't see that. Kentucky and West Virginia are strong Clinton, but Montana, South Dakota and North Carolina are strong Obama.

[Person Man]

MT & SD have very few delegates between them.  Obama could win them, but it probably would (at best) be just enough to offset a loss in WV.

The five biggest May/June primaries are IN, NC, KY, OR, and Puerto Rico.  Obama probably has the advantage in NC & OR, but probably not by enough to offset the other 3.

Anyway, my point is just that I Clinton certainly has a good shot at gaining ground in May/June (even if you don't believe it's a sure thing).  She will *have to* gain ground in May/June if she wants to catch up in pledged delegates, because catching all the way up before that is virtually impossible.

Reasonable. Where do you put her chances of doing it before, during and after PA?