I don't necessarily believe there are much or any flips beyond 2016 plus NV. More likely there's a relatively high share of 3rd party votes and Trump runs up the scores in states like TX, FL and OH while D-strongholds like CA, NY and IL are closer than usual.
✓ Former President Donald Trump (R-FL)/Governor Kristi Noem (R-SD): 313 EVs.; 48.9%
President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kamala Harris (D-CA): 225 EVs.; 45.9%
In a way, its basically 2004 all over again. Bush won Texas by 20 and Florida by 5. Kerry only won Illinois and California by 10 and only managed like 15 in New York.
On the whole, this is probably the best prediction if the election were held today, even down to picking Kristi Noem because she is basically Trump himself as a youngish woman.
2024 will, in this scenario, basically be 2004 if 1) COVID never happened and 2) Trump, as President, was treated by the media the way he is now.
