Kansas abortion rights amendment thread - "NO" wins!

[Person Man]

Wonder how it’s going.

[Person Man]

High turnout in Johnson County means nothing. High turnout in Northern Virginia was supposed to foreclose on Glenn Youngkin winning, and it didn't.

IDK what you're talking about. I called Youngkin winning before the polls closed, it was nothing like this. When even Lurker stops dooming based on encouraging signs and you keep on dooming on anyway... I mean come on, man.

Let me try to talk Doomer. I know we’re not that lucky, but we’re not that unlucky.

[Person Man]

With my wife watching a show about the Stuarts, I like to think of this election as a battle of Catholics against Protestants!

[Person Man]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

Keep in mind Biden had a lead early in Kansas as I think early votes are counted first

Yeah, I remember Biden and Bollier both being ahead by a good amount, then Trump and Marshall winning by double digits. This is far from over.

I hope that the pandemic dynamic ebbing has somewhat changed the calculus. Didn’t the early vote exceed the total vote of 2020?

[Person Man]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

Keep in mind Biden had a lead early in Kansas as I think early votes are counted first

Yeah, I remember Biden and Bollier both being ahead by a good amount, then Trump and Marshall winning by double digits. This is far from over.

How much?

[Person Man]

So we’re talking about a substantial loss or it coming down to the wire.

[Person Man]

No leads 70-30 in Topeka. That seems pretty good to me, but we'll see if it's enough to defeat the amendment.

Keep in mind Biden had a lead early in Kansas as I think early votes are counted first

Yeah, I remember Biden and Bollier both being ahead by a good amount, then Trump and Marshall winning by double digits. This is far from over.

How much?

If my memory serves me right, it might have been as much as 20+ points. Then again, my memory's not the best sometimes.

It’s still then on track to lose by a moderate amount.

[Person Man]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

[Person Man]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

Those were bans instead of constitutional carve outs.

[Person Man]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

I'll take 50.1% No. Even that would be seen in the media as a devastating rejection of Dobbs regardless of how grounded in history that interpretation would be.

IDK Kansas has always been considerably less pro-life than top line Republican, so it isn't the best example.  A devastating rejection of Dobbs would be if Kentucky rejects its abortion amendment in November.  However, it would still be significant for the Kansas pro-life referendum to underperform Trump that badly.

I agree with you again from a political wonk perspective, but not from a media narrative perspective, which is more important.

And perception is reality.

[Person Man]

Consequences are a bitch.

[Person Man]

Sedgwick 62% NO (49% reporting)

When it’s done, that would be a decent barometer.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554636579049771009?s=20&t=9JkrBQOvdV_...

It won’t be that close if that’s true.

[Person Man]

BOOM

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554639811595669505?s=20&t=AqwGAkw9qt8...

Having a freedom of choice state in the middle of the county is the biggest іди до біса I can think of to the Republican Party and Justice Alito.

[Person Man]

Johnson just dropped 120,970 votes, 72-28 no

So beautiful.

That’s a huge middle finger. People in Kansas City will be happy.

[Person Man]

Is anyone expecting Yes to pass? That would be an absolutely devastating result, as it would show that something has fundamentally changed in the decade since South Dakota and Mississippi voters overwhelmingly rejected abortion bans. Even a 55-45 No victory seems like a pretty good night for the anti-abortion side and something they should celebrate.

A similar thing to this passed in SD in 2004 by 7 points but in 2006 and 2008, the referendums lost by like 12 each time.

Exactly. A good night for Democrats is holding Yes under 40%, not merely winning the vote.

Those were bans instead of constitutional carve outs.

Sure, but who would vote differently on the two? Is there anyone out there who opposes a ban but would vote Yes to amend the Constitution to make a ban possible? Or even less likely, vice versa?

Maybe enough to explain half of the difference with the rest being the extreme partisan swing from 2004 to 2006. That alone explains half.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1554636579049771009?s=20&t=9JkrBQOvdV_...

I'm not sure if it's completely relevant, but I think Hays is one of the most Catholic parts of Kansas.

There’s a big ass Catholic Church there on exit 160 or something on I-70. The second half of Kansas actually feels pretty creepy with how vacant it is.

[Person Man]

It lost 19 points in a state where the last Republican overperformed the NPV by 19. In 2006, the last “similar” vote lost by 12 in a state that again overvoted Republican by 19. What’s even more interesting is that 2022 is, gun to my head, a R+3 year and 2006 was D+9. This thing should have been a barn burner but instead lost by 19.