Whichever way you look at it, post 2022 Democrats are royally screwed in the Senate. The 2024 map is unwinnable for them even if it was a blue wave year - and 2026 offers little opportunity for enough pickups to get anywhere near a majority even in a best case scenario for them - a 60+ red senate in the next 2-4 years is pretty plausible even if Democrats won 49-51% of the vote nationally. This is mostly down to the current Democratic coalition which may be enough to win the House/electoral collage when you have high Democrat turnout, but in the senate runs into structural barriers because of the white/rural bias of the Senate. Assuming the Democratic coalition doesn’t adapt and change dramatically, my question is after this term or next (if they keep the senate in 2022), we know it’ll be Republican by 2024 - so when do you see Democrats being able to take the senate again and how? Can’t see a path for them. I doubt it’ll become a permanently Republican body but they look set to have a lock on the chamber as far ahead as you can look post-2024.
I think the Kansas referendum and the SE in AK opened the door to the potential for Democrats to reach out to places like Alaska, Montana, Kansas, and Nebraska. Maybe even the Dakotas and one day Utah. Yes. They would have to change their coalition and message. I think that if their performance is any where close to as bad as what you say it will be and it is largely because of defections and low turnouts amongst groups that are reliably Democratic but are becoming open to persuasion, I can see Democrats going over to them and saying "you don't deliver, you even lost us Florida, Ohio, and Nevada". From there, there can reach over to people who are currently uncomfortable with Democrats, but are open to things like the ACA, public education, unions, and abortion rights, but are turned off by immigration reform, overly aggressive anti-policy brutality methods, and most forms of gun control.
This isn't some crazy idea. After getting their asses thoroughly kicked in 2004, Democrats tried to reach out to these moderate rural voters in Bush's second term. They got a senator elected in North Dakota and Montana. They got a congress person elected in Idaho. They even got a Democrat reelected Governor in Wyoming and almost the AL house seat out there. The only reason why these places have swung away is because of how hyped people like all of you on Atlas(but who are probably have somewhat better communication skills and work ethic) took over the strategy of the Democratic Party and bought into the "Coalition of Ascendant" mantra. After the economy recovered, a lot of those people went back to their old voting habits, but I am sure there is a way to build a better coalition out of doing well in the suburbs, have a little bleeding in the cities, and putting up respectable numbers in rural areas outside of the South. Going from 53% in the 'burbs, 80% in the cities, and 20% in rural areas to 56% in the suburbs, 70% in the cities, and 38% in the smaller communities would be a step in the right direction.
