Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

Been thinking about the fact that Russia is holding so much of their army back for no apparent reason.  The only thing that makes sense to me is that logistically they wouldn't be able to handle it.  We've seen reports of their issues in Belarus, and reports of Russian soldiers raiding homes for food and clothing.

See also, this:
https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1497485623225200640

… and God laughs…

[Person Man]

Armor running out of fuel on day 2 or 3 of an operation you initiated is a sign you don't really know what the hell you're doing.  

You expect Russian equipment to break and the conscripts not fighting very well, but you don't expect them to lose so much equipment so fast, run out of fuel of all things and have 2 large jets full of some of Russia's best trained troops shot down?  That ain't a good sign for Russia moving forward.


This also confirms my belief that the PRC can NOT take Taiwan as the PRC's equipment and men aren't as good as Russia and it's far easier to invade a country you share a long land border with than it is to invade an island 110 miles from your shores.  The Taiwanese might not have the military might Ukraine does, but they have far better geography on their side.

If anything, this war should improve people’s confidence in dealing with Russia or China.

[Person Man]

Russians claim that they halted their operations later yesterday due to the prospect of talks with Ukraine.  It seems that Ukraine has since rejected these talks, as per the Russians, so now Putin has already ordered a resumption of the offensive.

Was there a chance to stall the Russians long enough to get resituated? Or was Putin lying as a cover that he was caught with his pants down and needed time to pull them up?

[Person Man]

Russians claim that they halted their operations later yesterday due to the prospect of talks with Ukraine.  It seems that Ukraine has since rejected these talks, as per the Russians, so now Putin has already ordered a resumption of the offensive.

Was there a chance to stall the Russians long enough to get resituated? Or was Putin lying as a cover that he was caught with his pants down and needed time to pull them up?

I am very skeptical of this Russian narrative.  I am sure they might have slowed down but that is not because the prosepect of talks but more for their own military reasons.

Probably has something to do with how poorly they planned.

[Person Man]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

I commend Zelensky's personal courage. He may have done a poor job preparing his nation for war, but there's no doubt he is now raising the morale of his nation and boosting their will to fight. Looks like it was enough for the Ukrainians to hold Kiev for now, but he is still under threat and if he were captured it would crush Ukrainian morale. He either has a highly secret (and likely highly dangerous) plan to evacuate when he is under imminent threat, or it is his intention to become a martyr. Nothing of the former has leaked so I think the latter is a real possibility.

Agree with you here totally!

He definitely needs a survivor.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1497569648216322059

Yulia Tymoshenko, Yury Luzenko and other deputies of the Verkhovna Rada are armed as well.

They must be giants!

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1497547745997254661?t=FyWfMLgBNdemMJ3g...

That’s pretty much it, then? Right?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1497568972652302342?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

Jesus I hope this is bluster

He might be planning for a global murder-suicide.

[Person Man]

Some additional info from the Wall Street Journal on the Battle for Kiev and elsewhere...

"...A Russian column that attempted to advance from the West, on the highway linking Kyiv to Lviv, was destroyed in nighttime fighting inside Kyiv, witnesses said. Bodies lay on the ground, amid the smoldering remains of armored vehicles and trucks. Presumed Russian infiltrators, traveling in civilian vehicles, were also gunned down by Ukrainian troops as they tried to approach the Ukrainian Parliament building, the witnesses said. Intense firefights were reported in other locations throughout the capital.

After daybreak on Saturday, Ukrainian regular troops and volunteers of the newly formed Territorial Defense force regained the upper hand, erecting roadblocks, firing positions and other fortifications around the city, particularly in the government district and near bridges spanning the Dnipro river. Trucks accompanied by police ferried ammunition as civilians lined up patiently in grocery stores, at pharmacies and teller machines.

A large supermarket on Kyiv’s Antonovycha street was well stocked, with fresh bread, pineapples and Italian cheese, and some of the checkout lanes still accepted Apple Pay. A handful of basement bars reopened as makeshift shelters, serving espressos before the 5 p.m. curfew kicked in. At one bar, customers were asked to show their passports to prove that they weren’t Russian citizens.

The biggest lines in the Ukrainian capital were at the recruitment centers for the Territorial Defense. At one sports facility converted for this purpose, several hundred volunteers, commanded by career military officers, loaded crates of ammunition into civilian vehicles and sped off to their positions...

...

South of Kyiv, Russian airborne troops attempted a landing in the strategic town of Vasylkiv, the location of a Ukrainian military airfield. Firefights broke out during the night but by morning hundreds of Ukrainian troops and irregular volunteers armed with assault rifles patrolled Vasylkiv’s main road. Along the highway running between Kyiv and Odessa near Vasylkiv, security forces and local volunteers wearing armbands were looking for stray Russian troops who might be hiding in the woods.

Ukrainian soldiers said they had driven off most of the Russian landing force in Vasylkiv. Kyiv also said Ukrainian forces had downed a Russian Il-76 transport plane full of airborne troops near Vasylkiv. That claim couldn’t be independently confirmed. In the late morning, contrails of two jet fighters engaging in a dogfight could be seen in the blue skies above the town.

..."





https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-assault-on-ukraine-presses-forward-as-street-battles-rage-in-kyiv-11645864200

Then they need some hound dogs to tree them Ruskies!

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/imraansiddiqi/status/1497607326487826435

Well, he’s getting fired.

[Person Man]

Sumy is a major victory for Ukraine. Kyiv surviving last night also was stunning.

On the flip side, Russia’s taking of Gostomel airbase may doom Kyiv tonight and of course all those troops near Brest are going for an attack on the West where there aren’t so many troops.

I fear that all the people who fled west to Lviv and didn't continue into Poland or Slovakia or Hungary will be in for a nasty surprise soon.

If I were in charge of Ukraine's military strategy, I'd be massing troops and equipment behind the mountains around Uzhhorod to prepare for a last stand in Ukraine's one true natural citadel, as a fallback for if/when Kyiv and other major cities fall.

The terrain of Ukraine is as flat as the American Midwest (North European Plain, remember), and that allows for an army built like the Russians to advance pretty quickly...if they want to. At least, the terrain is permitting for that sort of thing.

Mostly yes. The eastern 2/3 is very flat. The western 1/3 has scattered hills, valleys, and ravines. And the far western 2-3% of the territory is tucked behind 6,000 ft high mountains, creating a nice natural fortress.

That's partly what I'm getting at actually. Ukraine has its own version of the Driftless (quite hilly terrain and all), but it's mostly flat.
The only really major thing that it has that the Midwest really doesn't an equivalent of, is the Carpathians.

I guess Ohio borders West Virginia?

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

If there’s a genocide in Ukraine, I would be open to impeaching the president.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

No reports yet of them being used on urban areas, and I hope it stays that way, but I guess we will see.

Anyway, you are understandably emotional about this, but frying the entire human race with nukes is no better alternative to this.

Like swan said, is that any better than having a world where certain people can just do what they want? It becomes an evitable no matter what we do at a certain point.

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1497681460022562816

Buratinos were seen entering Ukraine today. I hope to God they will not be used on cities.

Unlike other MLRS systems, it is a heavy thermobaric weapon .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiqS_k754oQ

It’s time to declare war. This is an inexcusable crime against humanity, and if we do not act now, we forever set the precedent that countries with nuclear weapons can massacre whomever they please with no tangible repercussions.

No reports yet of them being used on urban areas, and I hope it stays that way, but I guess we will see.

Anyway, you are understandably emotional about this, but frying the entire human race with nukes is no better alternative to this.

At what point does this stop? By the time this is all over with, the precedents set today will be used as justification for genocide tomorrow. Your worries are understandable, and I know full well this is a risky move…but the alternative is simply just as bad, if not worse. We face a critical decision today, do we take a huge risk now, or do we punt the football to the next generation and the next, with the world becoming progressively more bleak with each passing year?

Pretty much. Since about the early 2000s, it’s becoming a situation where we need to take a dump or get off the toilet before the decision is made for us.

[Person Man]

Unconfirmed, season with a bit of salt.

https://twitter.com/AntonioTwitt3r/status/1497693083999383553

It might be beginning…(the cyber war)

[Person Man]

Here's something I just found that's hilarious. Pokes fun at Russia's performance in Ukraine thus far.

related: https://twitter.com/acitrano/status/1497705132632403971?s=20&t=1EQIyuKNHRJlT...

Lol.
I'm not even upset if that's bad intelligence or not. The memes are outright hilarious.
Memes help make moments like this not terrible to go through.

I want to see WBC-style memes against Russia/Putin.

[Person Man]

Oil depot near Vasylkiv hit

https://twitter.com/AlertsNew2022/status/1497706215899553798

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497709487104397318

Could this be like the 1991 ecocide that Saddam committed when he was running away from Kuwait?

[Person Man]

These stories and pictures of Ukrainian civilians being given weapons create images of the Volkssturm in 1945.  They were and are still are bad idea not just because of the lives it cost but they were mostly ineffective.  German generals in 1945 often complain that the Volkssturm units were better of being disbanded and instead working in the German army itself to work on logistics and communications versus trying to fight the USSR forces in battle,

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

Maybe more importantly, why do you continue to be Putin's useful idiot? Are you getting paid by him or what?

That could be.  My point still is that it might make Ukrainian citizens feel better to be firing a rifle at the Russians but they will be helping more if they help with logistics, preparing defensive positions, and destroying roads to block Russian advances.  Untrained units carrying weapons never add up to much in terms of military effectiveness.

People can be utilized multiple ways.

[Person Man]

These stories and pictures of Ukrainian civilians being given weapons create images of the Volkssturm in 1945.  They were and are still are bad idea not just because of the lives it cost but they were mostly ineffective.  German generals in 1945 often complain that the Volkssturm units were better of being disbanded and instead working in the German army itself to work on logistics and communications versus trying to fight the USSR forces in battle,

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

Maybe more importantly, why do you continue to be Putin's useful idiot? Are you getting paid by him or what?

jaichind lives in a cuh-razy, topsy-turvy world where cats chase dogs, hot snow falls up, and libertarianism is when strongmen brutalize their own and neighboring populations.

I have my theories about him. Most of them are borrowed from my brother who runs a psychotherapy clinic for the VA. They mostly revolve around not being amoral inasmuch as maybe being a trait of neurodiversity. I mean, the typical person who makes half a million a year, especially in my field, but they are many in his, are generally not the most neurotypical.

[Person Man]

These stories and pictures of Ukrainian civilians being given weapons create images of the Volkssturm in 1945.  They were and are still are bad idea not just because of the lives it cost but they were mostly ineffective.  German generals in 1945 often complain that the Volkssturm units were better of being disbanded and instead working in the German army itself to work on logistics and communications versus trying to fight the USSR forces in battle,

The main difference between the German Volkssturm in 1945 and Ukrainian civilians today is certainly a significantly different level in morale. My own grandfather deserted before he could be drafted into the Volkssturm.

Maybe more importantly, why do you continue to be Putin's useful idiot? Are you getting paid by him or what?

jaichind lives in a cuh-razy, topsy-turvy world where cats chase dogs, hot snow falls up, and libertarianism is when strongmen brutalize their own and neighboring populations.

I have my theories about him. Most of them are borrowed from my brother who runs a psychotherapy clinic for the VA. They mostly revolve around not being amoral inasmuch as maybe being a trait of neurodiversity. I mean, the typical person who makes half a million a year, especially in my field, but they are many in his, are generally not the most neurotypical.

I'm autistic and I can confirm that it's no excuse for being like the Scarsdale Sadist.

I didn’t necessarily say that.

[Person Man]

Confirmed!

Russian Missle blew up Vasilkyv Oil Depot
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497712754878300166

This feels like Saddam Hussein setting fire to the oil fields.

[Person Man]

If it is, in fact, MRLS, the question is whether what is happening in Kharkiv will be swiftly extended to multiple fronts or whether Putin intends to wreck one city first as an example.

How useful MRLS’s are on a strategic level provided its psychological usage can be overcome?

[Person Man]

If it is, in fact, MLRS, the question is whether what is happening in Kharkiv will be swiftly extended to multiple fronts or whether Putin intends to wreck one city first as an example.

How useful MLRS’s are on a strategic level provided its psychological usage can be overcome?

I started writing a post on this, but I'm going to keep this short and would really prefer for someone with a military background to weigh in. My understanding of them from studying past conflicts is that they are generally more destructive than regular artillery in the short term (because multiple rockets are fired at once - they make up for worse accuracy by covering an area in explosions) but slower to reload in the long haul.

Thermobaric weapons (the most powerful after nukes) are used by other countries, but only the USSR and Russia have manufactured thermobaric MLRS (Ukraine has some older, weaker Soviet ones), and these have even higher payloads than the regular MLRS. In urban warfare, these have been used to solve the problem of urban combat by removing the urban areas. What happened to Grozny is a case in point.

Of course Grozny were a bunch of guys with rifles and pickup trucks…

[Person Man]

how do you think this will effect the up coming elections in poland next year and hungary this year?

This pretty much dooms populist parties. Establishment parties can just say they are responsible for the war.  The hardliners that control Poland are staunch Anti-Putin.

[Person Man]

Russians now reportedly dumping their soldiers into the sea to save the Ukrainians the trouble of shooting them:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1497664806958030851?s=20&t=b_94FJ3infb...

Putin’s soldiers die, God laughs.