Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread (user search)
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  Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread (search mode)
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Author Topic: Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread  (Read 931996 times)
Person Man
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« Reply #225 on: March 09, 2022, 06:00:41 PM »
Quote from: 🇺🇦 Servant of the Paddingtons 🇺🇦 on March 09, 2022, 05:43:35 PM
Quote from: Helsinkian on March 09, 2022, 04:25:06 PM
The Russians have invented their own "Putin salute":



It’s rather surreal to see this and “Z” become Nazi-like symbols in basically no time at all.

It’s only a matter of time before more states become nazified. Maybe WW3 is inevitable.
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Person Man
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« Reply #226 on: March 09, 2022, 08:39:35 PM »
Quote from: UKRAINE IS GAME TO YOU??? on March 09, 2022, 08:26:35 PM
Quote from: compucomp on March 09, 2022, 08:11:38 PM
Let's say in the next 2-3 weeks the Russians capture Kiev and Kharkov and lose another 20% of their forces. Who would be winning the war at that point?

Your doctor, since you would have an erection lasting longer than four hours and would give him or her a story to tell at dinner parties for the rest of his or her career.

Don’t they have a needle for that?
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Person Man
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« Reply #227 on: March 10, 2022, 08:56:26 AM »
Quote from: Torie on March 10, 2022, 08:41:10 AM
Bullet points from a guy in the know supposedly to brighten up your day, not:

1. Putin has always been secretive and conspiratorial but “What I have heard about the president’s behavior over the past two years is alarming. His seclusion and inaccessibility, his deep belief that Russian domination over Ukraine must be restored and his decision to surround himself with ideologues and sycophants have all helped to bring Europe to its most dangerous moment since World War II.” It has not helped that Putin is even more paranoid about Covid than I am.

2.  Thus his rat pack is basically down to one Mr. Kovalchuk, who ala Muon2 holds a doctorate in physics, but unlike Muon2 is also “an ideologue, subscribing to a worldview that combines Orthodox Christian mysticism, anti-American conspiracy theories and hedonism.” The hedonism and mysticism bit sounds interesting. Is that "a thing" in the Orthodox Church?

3. “The economy, social issues, the coronavirus pandemic, these all annoy Putin. Instead, he and Mr. Kovalchuk obsess over the past.” Yeah, they can be annoying I have to agree, but somebody has to do it. And it sounds about right that Putin does not care much about something as mundane as the standard of living of his people.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/10/opinion/putin-russia-ukraine.html



 If this is the best that Russia can do, why are they even allowed to govern themselves?
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Person Man
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« Reply #228 on: March 10, 2022, 09:15:12 AM »
Quote from: Torie on March 10, 2022, 09:08:45 AM
And also in the NYT is this outstanding article by the guy who I think coined the word "woke," Ross Douthat. Gosh I wish I had his talent and insight.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/09/opinion/ukraine-russia-invasion-west.html

1. The real politick guy John Mearsheimer, who thinks only the great powers matter, and the rest are but pawns, and the West went wrong when it NATO'ed up Russia's borders rather than team up with Russia to keep China contained, with one exception, had it all wrong. Putin does not care about NATO, he wants Ukraine part of Russia NATO or no NATO, and Ukraine has shown that "pawns" can matter more then JM thinks. I mean they have proven to be a real pain in the butt to Putin.  The idea that great power leaders can be counted on to be rational actors is also wrong. The planet is not a game or Risk.

2. It is wrong however to toss real politick entirely into the dust bin however. China, India and the Gulf states are all breaking bad, so that is a concern.

I am not doing the article justice, but the above are a couple of take aways.

Realism is for people who are boring, lazy, or both.
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Person Man
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« Reply #229 on: March 10, 2022, 09:47:10 AM »
Quote from: rc18 on March 10, 2022, 09:34:26 AM
Quote from: Middle-aged Europe on March 10, 2022, 09:13:12 AM
German Bishops' Conference of the Roman Catholic Church supports arms shipments to Ukraine arguing that they're meant for self-defense.




Weak.

Francis should declare a crusade like the good old days.

We can party like its 1204!
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Person Man
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« Reply #230 on: March 10, 2022, 03:02:16 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on March 10, 2022, 02:46:18 PM
Quote from: SirMapleGrove on March 10, 2022, 02:43:35 PM
Good for Poland. (reply intentionally included)



Lmao, they didn't rename the German translation below.

I just noticed that now.
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Person Man
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« Reply #231 on: March 10, 2022, 06:25:16 PM »
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 06:14:26 PM
Bunching up your tanks closely together along the obvious route to Kyiv, what could go wrong?



Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
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Person Man
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« Reply #232 on: March 10, 2022, 07:07:51 PM »
How many more loses can the Russians reasonably sustain?
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Person Man
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« Reply #233 on: March 10, 2022, 07:25:24 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on March 10, 2022, 07:14:43 PM
Protests continue in Russian Occupied Ukrainian Cities earlier today... Footage from Melitopol and Berdiansk (Haven't yet tracked down other non-violent protests today elsewhere)







Encouraging, but I want to see them start collecting scalps.
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Person Man
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« Reply #234 on: March 10, 2022, 09:23:31 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 09:12:02 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 09:05:05 PM
A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.










As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.
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Person Man
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« Reply #235 on: March 10, 2022, 10:05:23 PM »
Quote from: Omega21 on March 10, 2022, 10:00:51 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 09:33:38 PM
Quote from: Person Man on March 10, 2022, 09:23:31 PM
Quote from: pppolitics on March 10, 2022, 09:12:02 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 10, 2022, 09:05:05 PM
A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.










As I said before, Ukraine probably gives up joining NATO and concedes Crimea to Russia.

Putin then gets to spin that back home as a win

Do they still get into the EU? They are probably too poor but it would be a bit of a deterrent.

Yes.

In turn, Ukraine gives up any claims of reparations.

I am with you on this one.

Basically I am still sticking with:

Quote from: Omega21 on February 25, 2022, 04:54:44 PM

A realistic solution might be:

Russian Crimea

Autonomous Donbas as part of Ukraine

Constitutional neutrality (Austria Style) with Russian guarantees in return

Ukraine can pursue EU


Only thing that might be different is Donbas, I can imagine the whole (de jure) region getting autonomy, but I can also imagine Ukraine renouncing the pre February 22 occupied areas, whilst maintaining federal control of the rest.

This scratches Putins itch for some kind of a "win", whilst also keeping Ukraine a viable & more stable nation with even more potential for the future, especially considering the level of Aid that the EU/US will pour in afterwards.

I worked with a lot of these men and women at my first job. I think Ukraine can become Europe’s India.
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Person Man
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« Reply #236 on: March 11, 2022, 11:25:43 AM »
Have fun with that.
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Person Man
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« Reply #237 on: March 11, 2022, 01:50:48 PM »
Quote from: STAND WITH UKRAINE on March 11, 2022, 01:02:31 PM
The city of Volnovakha has fallen.
This would be a major loss for the Ukrainians, as the city finally falling would free you Russian troops to put more pressure on Mariupol if needed, push North and further make things difficult for the Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk province, or move West for a possible push towards Zaporizhzhia.
https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-11-22/index.html

It's a town almost where they started. It's actually kind of sad.
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Person Man
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« Reply #238 on: March 11, 2022, 04:19:10 PM »
Quote from: ugabug on March 11, 2022, 02:51:00 PM


Navy Captain, right? Major doesn’t really seem like a senior officer position.
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Person Man
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« Reply #239 on: March 12, 2022, 08:43:17 AM »
Quote from: ugabug on March 12, 2022, 08:40:14 AM


Repeat after me. Complete. Waste. Of. Sperm.
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Person Man
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« Reply #240 on: March 12, 2022, 09:44:08 AM »
Quote from: ugabug on March 12, 2022, 09:27:08 AM
Well this would be stupid on Russia's part.



Makes it that much easier to get a NFZ going.
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Person Man
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« Reply #241 on: March 12, 2022, 11:02:02 PM »
Quote from: Badger on March 12, 2022, 10:26:25 PM
Something my oldest friend texted to me.  Absolutely worth the 5 minutes read to explain why Russia's military is so bad

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1502673952572854278?s=20&t=VKopazV0byqI-cLBHQoYCQ

 Quick preview. It talks about how talks about how the military leadership is kept intentionally castrated and, frankly, stupid by the Russian leadership so it cannot threaten said leadership or the state's security forces. It involves such symptoms as, I kid you not, the Russian mafia regularly shaking down Army bases, even ones where nukes are stationed, with the full tacit support port of the government, government Kama and even conscripts being forced in the gay prostitution to make cash for hire ups.

This sounds more like a Florida Man thing than anything else.
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Person Man
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« Reply #242 on: March 13, 2022, 09:44:25 AM »
Quote from: urutzizu on March 13, 2022, 09:35:53 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-13/putin-s-war-on-ukraine-will-destroy-russia-too-l0p8651t

This Article makes for quite a read. Comes as Russian central bank extends trading shutdown on the Moscow Exchange for another week. On track to becoming a months long shutdown.



Overall it's pretty mindblowing the kind of measures that Russia has had to take against the sanctions. According to just what I can keep track of, Russia has:

- more than doubled its key interest rate to 20%
- imposed capital controls
- banned exports of more than 200 products to 48 countries. Including telecoms, medical, vehicle, agricultural, and electrical equipment.
- plans seizure of assets owned by western companies that want to leave
- effectively stolen foreign leased planes
- legalized patent theft from "unfriendly countries"
- effectively defaulted, by conditioning payments to foreign creditors on sanctions lifting

The effect this will have on basically any foreign investment (incl. Chinese!) in the future is obvious.

And this against Sanctions which, at least in terms of financial sanctions, have not even remotely reached the outer rim of what would be possible. With SWIFT the exclusions so far are quite mild (7 Russian banks and 3 Belarusian are delisted, but not all and not the key ones: Sberbank or Gazprombank). Unlike Iran sanctions, west has completely held off from secondary sanctions. So far the sanctions have been limited to sanctioning specific entities, but no international sanctions against entities that transact with these sanctioned entities. Of course full delisting from SWIFT and secondary sanctions would make EU paying for Russian energy in the short term much more difficult. But that is temporary, and Russia is playing a very risky game against time at this point.

So basically Russia is the next North Korea at this rate.
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Person Man
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« Reply #243 on: March 13, 2022, 11:52:16 AM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on March 13, 2022, 11:45:06 AM
Quote from: urutzizu on March 13, 2022, 09:35:53 AM
Of course full delisting from SWIFT and secondary sanctions would make EU paying for Russian energy in the short term much more difficult. But that is temporary, and Russia is playing a very risky game against time at this point.

Keep in mind that Russia's gamble remains exactly what it was when they invaded 2-&-a-1/2 weeks ago: that they can secure victory in Ukraine before the West is willing to sacrifice its own economic security. Intentions aside, Putin knows that higher gas prices will kill Biden, & that Scholz's new government in Germany is skittish trying to project their own power on the world stage while still having to fill Merkel's shoes. Basically, Russia picked the right time, but the wrong(est?) strategy.


Wouldn’t be the first time someone fumbled the ball in field goal range.
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Person Man
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« Reply #244 on: March 13, 2022, 02:41:21 PM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on March 13, 2022, 02:29:39 PM
So could be FJ's Tweet I posted a few minutes ago was an on the ground footage of this ambush earlier?







From Russia with love.
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Person Man
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« Reply #245 on: March 13, 2022, 03:01:18 PM »
Quote from: Storr on March 13, 2022, 02:58:38 PM




A brigade consists of between 3000-10000 soldiers. I wonder if there will be enough Americans to form their own brigade.

The last I heard, they had 3000 so maybe.
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Person Man
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« Reply #246 on: March 14, 2022, 09:46:13 AM »
Quote from: Meclazine on March 14, 2022, 09:39:26 AM
Quote from: dead0man on March 14, 2022, 04:37:39 AM
Quote from: Middle-aged Europe on March 14, 2022, 04:35:40 AM
German ministry of defense has made its first decision on how to use its new 100 billion Euro budget.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/1503299897868664833
good news for everyone (except German taxpayers and Russia)!

I thought the Germans were banned from running any military.

They will be straight into Poland.

You are thinking of Article V and Japan. And even then, it was just a ban on offensive wars.

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Person Man
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« Reply #247 on: March 14, 2022, 02:21:57 PM »
Quote from: Badger on March 14, 2022, 09:53:19 AM
Quote from: Meclazine on March 14, 2022, 09:39:26 AM
Quote from: dead0man on March 14, 2022, 04:37:39 AM
Quote from: Middle-aged Europe on March 14, 2022, 04:35:40 AM
German ministry of defense has made its first decision on how to use its new 100 billion Euro budget.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/1503299897868664833
good news for everyone (except German taxpayers and Russia)!

I thought the Germans were banned from running any military.

They will be straight into Poland.

Roll Eyes

I assume that it's just a bad joke.
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Person Man
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« Reply #248 on: March 14, 2022, 06:42:22 PM »
Quote from: Torie on March 14, 2022, 05:59:33 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 14, 2022, 04:44:02 PM
Suck it Solovyov!




Is there a text in English out there to share? When does Russia plan to annex the Hudson Valley?


They all should die in prison.
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Person Man
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« Reply #249 on: March 14, 2022, 08:03:34 PM »
Quote from: Storr on March 14, 2022, 07:43:46 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 14, 2022, 07:38:39 PM
Quote from: Torie on March 14, 2022, 05:59:33 PM
Quote from: Storr on March 14, 2022, 04:44:02 PM
Suck it Solovyov!




Is there a text in English out there to share? When does Russia plan to annex the Hudson Valley?

<tweet snip>
Evidently Grozev shared the wrong clip and this is the umm....nutty one:





He must like glowing in the dark.
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