2008, 2012, 2016

[Person Man]

There's a difference between being a warrior on issues of religion and the family (what I call social conservatism) vs being a warrior on issues of national identity (what I call cultural conservatism). People who are primarily social conservatives by my definition tend to be less right wing on racial issues than people who primarily cultural conservatives are. Example: George W. Bush.

Trump himself is decidedly the latter. He decided to take up enough social conservative issues like abortion and SCOTUS in order to win both blocs of voters. I expect the GOP to be primarily cultural conservative going forward while throwing enough bones to social conservatives (who won't vote for progressives) to keep them in the fold.

Yeah, I think this is correct. It also seems like most religious conservative leaders have given up on trying to reclaim the party and are settling for some judges.

This works until the legality of abortion and the legal status of homosexuality become legitimate political issues again. Maybe the socons score a "W" and move on?

I really don't think that abortion or even gay marriage will be "settled" the same way segregation and integration was. My guess is that they will become "local" issues so long as they number of jurisdictions that are permissive and prohibitive remain relatively equal?

[Person Man]

There's a difference between being a warrior on issues of religion and the family (what I call social conservatism) vs being a warrior on issues of national identity (what I call cultural conservatism). People who are primarily social conservatives by my definition tend to be less right wing on racial issues than people who primarily cultural conservatives are. Example: George W. Bush.

Trump himself is decidedly the latter. He decided to take up enough social conservative issues like abortion and SCOTUS in order to win both blocs of voters. I expect the GOP to be primarily cultural conservative going forward while throwing enough bones to social conservatives (who won't vote for progressives) to keep them in the fold.

Yeah, I think this is correct. It also seems like most religious conservative leaders have given up on trying to reclaim the party and are settling for some judges.

This works until the legality of abortion and the legal status of homosexuality become legitimate political issues again. Maybe the socons score a "W" and move on?

I really don't think that abortion or even gay marriage will be "settled" the same way segregation and integration was. My guess is that they will become "local" issues so long as they number of jurisdictions that are permissive and prohibitive remain relatively equal?

I agree wholeheartedly regarding abortion, but I think that gay marriage is more or less a settled issue at this point. Two-thirds of Americans support it, and conservatives have dropped the issue pretty rapidly because they recognize it's a losing battle. Even pre-Obergefell, it was fully legal in 35 states, and several of the remaining 15 states were somewhere in the process of legalizing it after court orders. I also think that the generational divide on this issue is even more stark than on other social issues, so time will only make it more popular.

Do you think the increasing very catholic Hispanic demographic will change this into a winning issue for Republicans?

Based on all recent surveys I can find, both a majority of Catholics and a majority of Hispanics have supported same-sex marriage for several years now, including a few years before Obergefell. So, I would imagine not.

Having abortion And marijuana be the next right to work thing and lgbt moving in a more abstract direction could be how the culture wars end. If that is the case, will the refocus on racial issues bring us back to Atwater’s proverbial “n****r n****r n****r”?