Will Republicans have a lock on the senate in the 2030s and beyond?

[Person Man]

They could but probably won't. Even when Democrats held it through the 60s and 70s, they only did so because of the ideological diversity that both parties today lack though there were times they probably didn't need conservative Democrats to hold the chamber at all the way House Democrats don't need conservatives at this moment.

This is so even because they will most likely have a lot of 2006 situations with the next Republican president. Where all the elements we are talking about actually do create the perfect storm to get enough moderate Democrats elected to flip the senate. That means there comes a time where someone new shows up at the right time that doesn't offend the sensibilities of those who are open minded but would NEVER vote for someone who reliably tows the opposite line or for a Democrat at the top of the ticket during a presidential year.

[Person Man]

I certainly think there's a chance it could happen, especially if Trump loses but Democrats fail to take the Senate in 2020. Republicans clearly have a major advantage with the Senate map, and I expect Democrats to generally control the presidency (meaning less Dem-friendly midterms).

Democrats had a lock on the House for 40 years (1955-1995), so it's not like there's no precedent.

But not the senate. I think Republicans were able to hold the Senate for 16 years at one point and the Democrats 26 years? It's truly a dynasty if the GOP is still in control in 2024.

[Person Man]

I certainly think there's a chance it could happen, especially if Trump loses but Democrats fail to take the Senate in 2020. Republicans clearly have a major advantage with the Senate map, and I expect Democrats to generally control the presidency (meaning less Dem-friendly midterms).

Democrats had a lock on the House for 40 years (1955-1995), so it's not like there's no precedent.

But not the senate. I think Republicans were able to hold the Senate for 16 years at one point and the Democrats 26 years? It's truly a dynasty if the GOP is still in control in 2024.

Yeah, I think the Democrats from 1955-1981 hold the record for longest uninterrupted period of control, though the Democratic-Republicans (1801-1825; though it could be longer if one wants to argue that the party didn't truly break up until a few years later) come close. Another impressive period of Senate dominance is GOP from 1861 to 1933; they controlled it for 62 of 72 years.

The GOP controlling the Senate for 10 straight years (2015-2025) would be pretty impressive, but I think it's important to understand that it's not unusual for one party to dominate a chamber over a long period of time.

Unless of course one party is about to be replaced by another more modern party.