Morning Consult: Biden +4, Sanders +2 (user search)
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  Morning Consult: Biden +4, Sanders +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Morning Consult: Biden +4, Sanders +2  (Read 513 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: April 08, 2020, 07:52:14 AM »

Biden is running about 4 points behind the generic ballot the way Romney ran 3 or 4 behind the R ballot. If this is the way it turns out, unless Trump wins a majority of the popular vote, he probably can't flip the house and even if he does win a majority of the NPV, two more years without a gerrymander may mean he might need to win by a couple of million votes.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 36,667
United States


« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2020, 10:41:35 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on April 08, 2020, 08:20:39 AM
Quote from: Wherever you want to go, you can't go there! on April 08, 2020, 07:52:14 AM

Biden is running about 4 points behind the generic ballot the way Romney ran 3 or 4 behind the R ballot. If this is the way it turns out, unless Trump wins a majority of the popular vote, he probably can't flip the house and even if he does win a majority of the NPV, two more years without a gerrymander may mean he might need to win by a couple of million votes.

Technically the Republicans are running 4 points behind Trump. Biden/Trump is 46/42 while Dem/Rep is 46/38. But most data has been consistent that the generic ballot is a few points more Dem than the presidential numbers.

I expect that to be the case as this is either going to be a status quo election or a change election but not a "Double Down" election.
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