I think people are dramatically overestimating McSally's chances in this race. I don’t think she can forge a path to victory in anything other than a Republican wave, and it’s probably more likely than not that she underperforms Trump, who’s certainly not favored in Arizona in 2020. I’d rate this Lean D, certainly not Tossup, and I still can’t wrap my head around Ducey's decision to appoint an unpopular proven loser to this seat.
Except if he plans to run for the seat in 2022 under a Democratic president.
Yeah, although this would be an incredibly risky strategy since the state will likely be even more Democratic in 2022, he’d have to run against an incumbent (I’m no Charlie Cook, but in a swing state which is trending away from his party this doesn’t exactly help), and Trump could still win reelection in 2020. Everything would have to fall into place, and I don’t think it will.
Even if it doesn’t work out, Ducey is no worse off than before. Besides if Scott could knock off a 3 term incumbent in 2018 in a Trump midterm why couldn’t the more popular Ducey knock off a 2 year incumbent in 2022 in a trump midterm? I don’t think he would but it’s not implausible.
He pretty much has to if he wants to stay in office. He isn't famous enough to run for President and the senate has no term limits. Does he want to run for Senate in 2022 or for senate in 2028? Republicans are great at successful procrastination. There are still some R trends in Arizona. Likely it all goes to sh**t but it is equally as likely that anyone else he put up there would lose just as well.
