What would happen if Obamacare was actually struck down?

[Person Man]

Apparently lifting the tax penalty for going uninsured has created a court case where Obamacare is being challenged as now exceeding the commerce clause and therefore as violating federal autonomy (and as being unlawfully compensatory against property rights without due process?) and as being statutorily overly broad/vague?

Anyways, lets say the 5th circuit claims that Obamacare violates constitutional rights or local government powers and SCOTUS affirms.

What are the long term and short term effects?

It would decimate public health, send the healthcare industry into a tailspin (basically snap away 10% of the business that 17% of the economy is based of off), and chill any further efforts of "moderate reform" for the next 20 to 30 years.

I could see three things play out-

- The system never recovers and insurance is basically converted into a Health Care Savings and Loan scheme

- The old system is restored in 5 years through massive bailouts to insurers, providers, et al.

- We get "radical reform"

[Person Man]

Total disaster. Any state with a Democratic government would repass it on the state level, still millions would lose their health insurance and thousands would die directly attributable deaths.

Also, only a few pages of the 3,000+ in the law are controversial, so a whole lot of administrative things would suddenly be gone without any obvious path forward.

That, mixed with Roe v. Wade being formally or de facto ignored would massive demographic problems in the 5 to 15 years, and perhaps 20 to 30 years, after it is done. The 2020s and 2030s could be chaos. People would be seeking refuge from neglect or oppression wherever they could.

[Person Man]

The death panels will finally be over, insha'allah.

I know you are trying to be funny but the The ultimate irony will be the speaking of the ultimate death panel.