As in, the Republican wins almost every state. But the Democrat wins their home state by a hair, and carries a handful of solidly Republican states (some in a landslide).
What do you mean a "handful of solidly Republican states"? That literally or states that still pretty Republican but rapidly trending away from Republicans?
If the latter, I see sometime in the 2020s or 2030s-
Maybe the trade wars escalate and it hurts people in natural resources
Roe gets overturned and there's no "herding" effect by it. Secular rural voters who normally vote Republican but not on abortion go from "not caring about it" to actually concerned what the recent personhood laws are doing to their state. About 15 or 20 states have made it legal and stopped talking about it thus making it easier for Republicans to campaign in that state. About 20 rural or southern states have personhood laws. States like Florida, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania have complicated laws on identity issues like this and they are always in play.
A Trumpy republican who is much more presidential is running in a similar "A-OK" economy like today. Because cultural issues are so atomized to their states, Republican nominees for president no longer have to care about them. He goes into Election Day in 2032 with a 57% approval rating.
Maybe, just like 1964 or 1928, this is the last election before the sh**t finally hits the fan with the economy going bust and/or the effects of decades of pushing theonomy and nationalism finally starts causing hardships to people that are on or around the peak of the demographic bell curve.
Basically, the new D coalition is almost exactly like the original GOP one.
- Minorities that are afraid of nationalists
- Working people afraid of trade wars
- Professionals and "city slickers" afraid of the aspects of "Populism"
- Business people who realize that "liberalism" in its current form has run its course and its better to be proactive in order to preserve as much of it as possible from Marxism or Feudalism or, better yet, to find liberalism 2.0.
