Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Person Man]

Ohio, Public Policy Polling (PPP), October 10-11, 776 RV.

Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 47%
Not Sure: 5%

Support the Impeachment Inquiry: 49%
Oppose the Impeachment Inquiry: 47%
Not Sure: 5%

God damn it.....😡

I guess people are still making money (or at least going into a sh**tload of debt thinking they are about to).

[Person Man]

Maine, PPP:

Trump approval 42-54 (does not change the map, so I give you no mew map. No distinction between ME-01 and ME-02 is made.

Impeach or not impeach -- 53-44 for.

Senator Susan Collins 35 approve 50 disapprove (bad spot to be in a year before the election, and this is a big fall from earlier polls).

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PPP_Release_ME_101519.pdf

The only way that Collins wins back support from moderates in this state is to actually take a moderate that position when it counted. It would have probably saved her career to vote Nay on Kavanaugh. That would be have been the best long run thing and Trump would have still been able to get the seat eventually.

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 13-15, 1500 adults including 1136 RV

Adults:

Approve 39 (-4)
Disapprove 51 (+2)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+4)

Generic D 41 (+1), Trump 36 (-1)

Impeach Trump: Yes 47, No 38 (not asked last week, but approval of impeachment inquiry was 45/42)

Remove Trump: Yes 48 (+3), No 37 (-2)


RV:

Approve 42 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+3)

Generic D 49 (+2), Trump 40 (-2)

Impeach Trump: Yes 53, No 40 (approval of inquiry was 50/46 last week)

Remove Trump: Yes 53 (+5), No 40 (-4)

GCB (RV only): D 49 (+3), R 39 (-3)

Ow...

Trump is at his lowest point since February in the RCP aggregate(even more noteworthy because of Rasmussens +1 slightly inflating said aggregate).

Didn't they have Republicans winning the popular vote last year by like 3?

[Person Man]

Trump's new strategy to flip MN seems to be backfiring.

Yeah because his strategy has been: "hey look, a state with a lot of white people. that must mean they love Trump".

His strategy isn't even that smart, considering that he's also targeting New Mexico.

We all thought he was dumb targeting Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin too.

Not trying to defend him; I think he’s unlikely to win MN or NM but it can’t be discounted and considering his cash on hand he’s not stupid to try.

As a Republican, you HAVE to target the Frost Belt. With Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, and Nevada slipping away, you can't just win in Ohio or Florida anymore.

[Person Man]

Even ARG is getting in on the act.

https://americanresearchgroup.com/economy/
          Approval  Disapproval

              (-3%)   (+1%)
Oct 2019   37%   59%   4%
Sep 2019   40%   58%   2%

42% of voters think the economy is getting worse.

[Person Man]

With the addition of the ARG, PRRI, and new Rasmussen (relatively bad for Trump at 45/53) polls, the 538 average is now at a net -13.3 (41.1/54.4), which is the lowest since February.

I don't think he goes any lower. I don't think he rises above -7, either. At -7, he still loses the popular vote but wins the electoral college against a weak challenger.

[Person Man]

60% disapproval is pretty stark. The point is, I don't see how these fundamentals change much over the next twelve months. Unless the election is rigged or a strong third party emerges, Trump should be in real danger.

The way he wins is that there is low turnout and he gets really lucky again.

[Person Man]

CNN/SSRS, Oct. 17-20, 1003 adults including 892 RV (change from early Sept.)

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 57 (+2)

Impeachment and removal:

Yes 50 (+3)
No 43 (-2)

More people want this jack ass gone but in reality, half of the people who didn't make up their minds, made up their minds.

[Person Man]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

[Person Man]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

Just that he has a history of getting people to show up to vote for him who haven’t really showed any intention of doing so.

[Person Man]

Emerson reverts back their usual mid-single digit disapproval rating:

Approval - 43%(-5%)
Disapprove - 47%(=)

Oddly enough, more voters favor impeachment than disapprove.

Impeachment
Favor - 48%
Oppose - 44%

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/october-national-poll-biden-sanders-warren-maintain-front-runner-status-in-democratic-primary

"I can't complain but he needs to go." Who says that?

[Person Man]

This could be it. Probably not though.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Politidope/status/1187740595051270144

This will not be the map for the 2020 election, but it is a nice thought. F***ing Ohio though! I'm also a bit surprised at NE-2.

It will be if the Democrats win... or something like it. This or Trump+ME MN NH are the two mostly likely maps at this rate.

[Person Man]

It will be if the Democrats win... or something like it. This or Trump+ME MN NH are the two mostly likely maps at this rate.

You think a Dem blowout map or a Trump blowout map are the 2 most maps likely at this point, vs. say one of them with a state flipped. 🤔

Maybe the Trump scenario but with Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania flipped if he improves by as much as W or Bill did. The Democrats will limit the EV gain by campaigning better. Look at what Kerry did compared to W. With Kerry's 2PPV share, Gore would have done about as well as Hillary or Romney did.

I don't think a Democrat will win a close election.

[Person Man]

If Trump pulls within 2% of his Democratic rival down from today's 10% gap, it means that most of the Trump '16 voters came home and more. It would probably be logical to assume that any close election favors him in the Electoral College and more pertinently, Presidents who retain their coalitions often get re-elected.

Carter and Bush lost huge swaths of their people from '76 and '88 and lost. W retained most of his 2000 voters and won re-election, as did Obama 2012 (going from 53% to 51%).

W actually improved on his 2000 percentage notably, by nearly 3% Nationwide, where has Carrie actually dropped slightly from Gores percentage, thus enabling  W to squeak out a narrow electoral victory

Which was a real feat given that the economy was sluggish, the war was starting to drag out, and Nader didn’t win millions of votes.

[Person Man]

How does that work?

[Person Man]

How does that work?

Are you asking about the MC/Politico poll?  What specifically are you wondering about?

More people being OK with Trump but fewer people being excited about him.