Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Person Man]

ABC News/Washington Post, Sep. 2-5, 1003 adults including 877 RV (change from early July)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

R: 82/14 (strongly 66/9)
I: 36/58 (strongly 23/49)
D: 8/90 (strongly 3/80)


RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 47

He basically went from being mildly unpopular to being quite unpopular. This could just be an outlier, though.

Gallup backed up these numbers a couple posts up. An encouraging trend, but I doubt it holds up unless these negative economic sentiments among the population hold true.

The only way Trump wins is that the economy restabilizes despite high debt, overpriced equities, high tariffs, political instability, and limited competition. The way that happens is either the banks have been able to sell more debt than ever or technology is really beginning to change the way things work in interesting ways. Maybe automation tamed inflation in ways that allow for unlimited public debt, helicopter economics, and stimulus.

Any banker can sell debt. There's always some fool who has some insane plan for making a huge amount of money fast  with little effort... competent  bankers ask where the collateral is, and the would-be borrower quips "Who needs collateral?", and rejects the borrower. Technological change is largely improvements in what people already have, and people are not going to spend big money for subtle improvements unless they are already flush with cash. With the unusually-high level of economic inequality that we have, there are still retailers selling DVD video of current feature films -- and in prosperous times, obsolete technologies die.

In view of the inverted yield curve, I would expect a slowdown because people are not going to borrow short for such things as remodeling, new cars, or appliances except out of need. We are practically due for an economic meltdown such as those of 1929 or 2007 (those two were much the same for a year and a half), and so far the only economic stewardship that President Trump has shown is to ride a tide.   

I'm not talking about consumption, I'm talking about the production and distribution. That has made things really cheap. Maybe the trade war will blow that smithereens futurists weren't kidding when they talking about how technology was going to change things. Moore's Law looks like it could go on for another 5 years. Maybe that will cause economic problems. That is, when the demand for technological capability finally outstrips its supply. 

[Person Man]

We could use some good science writing on this. Maybe we are going to see a pattern in which people's dwellings reflect when the last good time in their lives was, as the career patterns might allow people only one good decade or so and the rest be awful. So one rides a technological tide for a decade or so and then when that tide breaks, so does that person economically -- and things never go well again. It looks like a job for someone like Isaac Asimov who is no longer available, for obvious reasons.

Thus in the distant future (maybe around 2060) you will be able to look at someone's unfurnished apartment and see technology and furnishings typical of the 2020's, hear mass culture from the same time, and see clothing on the person that reek of the 2020's, and conclude that the 2020's were the last time that that person had things going sort-of-OK. Real antiques will be a rarity; most of the mass culture in all its manifestations will be so gaudy that it will be indefensible in later times.   

Sounds like the Eastern Europe of the late 70s and 80s.

[Person Man]

He’s not winning New Hampshire.

[Person Man]

It's remarkable how little Trump's numbers move, no matter what he does. They're almost set in stone.

It was the same for Bush throughout 2004. His support and opposition were basically unmovable. After being re-elected, he dropped like a stone.

If Trump is re-elected, it will probably happen here, too. It’s because persuadable voters are afraid of change and reasonable members of the other side are willing to admit that they were only behind him because of policy and will eventually admit he was a bad administrator. Persuadable voters will then go on to give someone different a chance.

If Trump wins, it will be very interesting to see how Pence’s ambitions clash with the end of the business cycle and the perceived weakness of the administration. His only roadmap to victory would be 1988. Then, Bush Sr. ran during a late cycle economy that was still pretty good, was perceived to be moderate and a congress stacked against him. Pence probably won’t have the good economy or the moderate reputation.

[Person Man]

Texas: Quinnipiac, Sep. 4-9, 1410 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Definitely vote for Trump 35
Consider voting for Trump 14
Definitely not vote for Trump 48

This seems a little more realistic than the Univision/UH poll.

Something tells me even in this sh**tshow and even in a stronger sh**tshow, Trump's ceiling is greater than 52% in Texas.

[Person Man]

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D), Aug. 15-21, 2629 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 27
Strongly disapprove 46

Generic D 52, Trump 42

GCB: D 49, R 41

I would buy that these numbers most accurately represent the morning where from which we can use the final results to how we evaluate the 2020 campaign. With these numbers, anything can happen. If the election turns out to be a Pyrrhic D victory (which tends to only happen during a D reelection) or a straight out R victory up and down the victory, not only can it be said that what Trump does is effective, but that the Dems are truly in disarray.

[Person Man]

Another GQR poll:

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps (D), Sep. 7-11, 800 RV including 775 LV

RV:

Approve 43
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 48

LV:

Approve 44
Disapprove 54

Strongly approve 32
Strongly disapprove 48

Trump trails Biden by 9, Warren by 7, and Sanders by 5.

Like I said, a fairly accurate picture of the environment coming into this thing.

[Person Man]

This is a little old, but interesting.

AARP, July 29-31, 600 likely voters (all ages) in each of AZ, CO, KY, ME, and NC.

AZ:

Approve 46 (strongly 34)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 44)

Biden 50, Trump 45

CO:

Approve 43 (strongly 30)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 47)

Biden 51, Trump 42

KY:

Approve 55 (strongly 39)
Disapprove 43 (strongly 36)

Trump 53, Biden 41

ME:

Approve 45 (strongly 31)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 49)

Biden 50, Trump 44

NC:

Approve 47 (strongly 34)
Disapprove 50 (strongy 46)

Biden 49, Trump 45

North Carolina and Arizona are swing states and Kentucky would be more competitive if Democrats needed it. Maine will only flip if Republicans do very well. Colorado is just out of reach.

[Person Man]

California: Emerson, Sep. 13-16, 830 RV

Approve 35
Disapprove 59

That's kind of high but ironically good for the Democrats. I think its just like Kentucky where because the party has given up in that state, a lot of people who would come out and make the state closer just won't vote because "what's the point?"

My brother was like that in Wyoming. He knew that though some people would agree with him, the average person would never consider a Democrat and so just thought elections were a joke in that state and didn't bother ever showing up.

[Person Man]

The impeachment/Ukraine thing appears to be HELPING Trump!

Trump's average approval rating is up almost 1% from yesterday.

I dont mean to be rude but your on a polling website, maybe try to think alittle harder...

Two new polls have been added to the RCP average, a Rasmussen +8(lol) and the Emerson +1. The Emerson poll has its own issues, but its still a data point so whatever. The Rasmussen +8 however is seriously helping to inflate the aggregate.

This isnt because of Ukraine and its foolish to think otherwise.

And it all hasn’t been factored in yet. The most recent events, not at all. Of course you could believe that undecided voters are being wooed by corruption and maybe you are right but don’t  count on it.

[Person Man]

No poll here has occurred after the most recent allegation of corruption.

[Person Man]

Rassy polls does show Trump at 51-47% approvals, but 43% say country is headed in right direction

That’s already down a little bit. That poll was probably driving him to stupid sh**t. He will probably use reelection as a green light to do whatever he wants.

[Person Man]

The last YouGov poll had Trump down by 8.  Last week, he was down by 9.   There seems to be a shift across polls from August.

There's always a certain shift on the margins. I just hope that in  light of what has most recently come to world's attention that the public's response is appropriate and doesn't ratify the current misconduct presently being discussed.

But yes. His approval rating is artificially low given that he has been the only thing in the news the last 4 years. That means that investors and managers have maintained  a spendthrift attitude. They had the same attitude during the last year or so of Obama's presidency and he enjoyed approvals in the high 50s.

[Person Man]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

[Person Man]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

I for one would be ecstatic if Trump has a 44% approval rating on Election Day 2020

He could win with 44% approval especially if there's a significant third party vote. A couple points lower and I'd feel better about it.

All I know is that if it is determined he has improved in the coming weeks, he could have finally broken the electorate.

[Person Man]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

Im gonna say this again for the umpteenth time, Trump's baseline is around -10. Sometimes he goes above that, sometimes below that. But it always returns back to the -10 range. Mid August to early September had some of Trump's worst polling in a while. Now its returning to the baseline. That being said, the worst news for Trump has been since the 25th. We should wait for polling next week and beyond to see the impact.

This is probably his worst news in 6 months and perhaps almost as bad as it was when one of his terrorists killed a girl or when there were those difficult albeit temporary setbacks in his plan to give free money to rich people.

I will concede that him temporarily giving up on dealing with Iran, Venezuela, and NK has probably led to some "libertarian"-leaning and leftist-leaning voters to determine that he has improved as president.

Still. If people continue to think he is getting better at his job or at least not any worse at it in the coming days and weeks, that could be seen as strong evidence that Trump has at least won the tolerance of the American people by breaking their will.

[Person Man]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

Im gonna say this again for the umpteenth time, Trump's baseline is around -10. Sometimes he goes above that, sometimes below that. But it always returns back to the -10 range. Mid August to early September had some of Trump's worst polling in a while. Now its returning to the baseline. That being said, the worst news for Trump has been since the 25th. We should wait for polling next week and beyond to see the impact.

This is probably his worst news in 6 months and perhaps almost as bad as it was when one of his terrorists killed a girl or when there were those difficult albeit temporary setbacks in his plan to give free money to rich people.

I will concede that him temporarily giving up on dealing with Iran, Venezuela, and NK has probably led to some "libertarian"-leaning and leftist-leaning voters to determine that he has improved as president.

Still. If people continue to think he is getting better at his job or at least not any worse at it in the coming days and weeks, that could be seen as strong evidence that Trump has at least won the tolerance of the American people by breaking their will.

Budgie is right in all respects.  Keep in mind that polls are lagging indicators.  They're usually published at least a few days (sometimes more) after they were actually in the field.  And it takes a while for news to reach the average person and incorporated in their views.  Most people don't pay close attention to these things the way we do.  This is especially true in a fluid, fast-developing situation like this one.  Please don't views polls as snapshots of what the population is thinking at this moment.  It's more like what they were thinking a few days or more ago.

Also, there is always going to be variation between polls and in the same poll due to sampling differences.  Pay attention to the margin of error.  Trump's polls got a little worse for a few weeks.  They've recovered a bit (not entirely) since then.  This is entirely normal variation.

If Trump's approval in the 538 average (not RCP, which is overly reliant on Rasmussen) gets up to around 45, or down to around 40, then I'll start thinking there's actual movement among the public.  But not before that.

That's fair. I know there is some lag but now its been a few days a few polls with no movement have already been conducted after the 24th. Like I said, we will probably know something in a week and a lot more in a month. That's a fair assessment about what 538 says. if he's at like -7 or better, he probably has "grown on" the people and will eventually do as well as Bush or Obama did. If he goes down to like -15 in the next few weeks or months, he is on track for an ass whoopin next year.

[Person Man]

CNN:

Nevada Trump approval (RV):
Approve 44
Disapprove 49

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/28/rel1_sc.pdf

South Carolina Trump approval (RV):
Approve 51
Disapprove 46

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/09/28/rel1_nv.pdf

>Nevada polling

Add 2 points to disapprove and deduct 1 from approve and I’ll believe it.

This could mean that if Trump has another "good enough" night, and seeps through the "blue wall", that could mean that Nevada still will not be called by daybreak and that though he might of had one of the best nights in decades for a Republican (somewhere between Bush's and Obama's reelection margins in both way), he still will have done perhaps only average in South Carolina.

What this probably means is that South Carolina isn't overwhelmingly Republican anymore, probably never really was, and now certainly isn't. It will still not vote for a Democrat for years if not decades.

Nevada continues to be a hard to poll state that is becoming increasingly inelastic. Much like Colorado is. The only way these two states have a reasonable chance of going Republican is if both of these states have  a combination of two trends converging. Those two trends are pollers figure out who actually votes in those states and that those they expect to vote actually vote or don't vote.

[Person Man]

The weird thing in the 538 is that Trump has lowest net approval rating of all presidents since tracking became available for this stage in his presidency.

It's still really odd that Trump is firming up in his worst polls and holding steady in the daily tracker.

[Person Man]

We are going to find out what the President's floor of approval ratings are very soon.

And simultaneously his ceiling.

[Person Man]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Loses every state where a majority disapproves with states where he's behind but below a 50% disapproval being TCTC

https://www.270towin.com/maps/Ab121

[Person Man]

New Morning Consult state-by-state approvals: https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Trump's being deep underwater in Iowa, and doing poorly in Ohio are both pleasant surprises.

A little surprised that Virginia is at only a negative 6 unfavorability rating. Hopefully an outlier rather than Republicans coming home in anticipation of State elections in a month? If the latter oh, that sets an ominous trend for 2020.

Or I could be reading too much into it.

His approvals are really tanking across the board in the Plains states. Im sure there will be lots of disapprove but still vote for him in those places, but hes going to lose Iowa and NE-2 with those numbers.

I’d be happy with that. With Colorado and Virginia off the table, being far from full strength in the farm areas is a death blow.

[Person Man]

Forget approvals, somebody please tell me how 35% of minnesotas could possibly have a VERY favourable opinion of Donald Trump. I mean the guy is a complete a**clown whether you like his politics or not. Amazing, really.

Irreducible minimum, I suppose -- some people love roguish personalities.

It's alt-right with them!

[Person Man]

Kaiser Family Foundation, Oct. 3-8, 1205 adults (1-month change)

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 27 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

If anything the impeachment simply means that instead of 93% of the electorate having an opinion, 97% do.

[Person Man]

The only way Trump wins is that because enough people are literally addicted to him.