MOScout: Hawley 49/45, Democrats lead in Auditor's contest

[Person Man]

The Senate was never tilt Democratic, anyways

I never thought we’d win it either but I always thought 50-50 split of winning NV, AZ but losing ND was the likeliest outcome. But now it looks like we’re going to lose ND, MO, IN, and maybe FL if we don’t start picking up our EV while only winning NV and even that is on shaky grounds.

I think we are fine in Indiana,  Florida,  and Montana. I'm willing to say that North Dakota and Missouri might be out of reach and that its become more important than ever to improve in Florida,  Georgia,  Arizona,  Nevada, and eventually Texas.

[Person Man]

The funny thing is that though a good-ish poll in GA-22 for Democrats improved Republican chances, this poll improved Democratic chances in fivethirtyeight.com.

[Person Man]

The funny thing is that though a good-ish poll in GA-22 for Democrats improved Republican chances, this poll improved Democratic chances in fivethirtyeight.com.

Wait really? Did they adjust it or something?

They adjusted it to R+.8.

[Person Man]

I love how the same people who take every Democratic-friendly poll and even Democratic internals at face value always rush to remind us that (R)emington is basically just cooking up R-friendly numbers and shouldn’t be trusted, even though their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Greitens and Trump significantly. But sure, go ahead and underestimate McCaskill's (or Heitkamp's, Tester's, and Donnelly's) vulnerability to your heart's content, I’m sure it’s just Republicans being overconfident again.

PPP poll, commissioned for a D-PAC: "Looks alright to me."

Remington poll: "Well this is obviously a Republican poll so we can't trust it."

Seriously.

What are the 538bhouse effects?