Hurricane Michael thread: (Updates, commentary)

[Person Man]

[Person Man]

Update: after repeatedly denying my best friend’s request to evacuate, I have decided to leave....but he has to drive

Probably not a bad decision.  And carpooling is also helpful.

I rode out Irma after deciding against evacuation. When the eye wall skirted the area, I ran out into the 90 mph winds and was able to get a pool float.

[Person Man]

It looks like a real hurricane now although the outflow is still kind of weak on the west side.

[Person Man]

It's CDO isn't smoothed out. This isn't deepening as fast as I've seen some systems deepen but odds still look decent at a major hurricane landfall.

Does that projecf for it to weaken back to Cat 1, then?

I highly doubt it.

I think the most realistic scenario is that its about as strong as it is now, maybe a little stronger.

[Person Man]

It's CDO isn't smoothed out. This isn't deepening as fast as I've seen some systems deepen but odds still look decent at a major hurricane landfall.

Does that projecf for it to weaken back to Cat 1, then?

I highly doubt it.

I think the most realistic scenario is that its about as strong as it is now, maybe a little stronger.

This is probably a good bet to become a Cat 3/4, the question lies is much does it weaken just prior to landfall.

Its going to be a hurricane. That's guaranteed. I'd give the following odds-

Cat 1 20%
Cat 2 30%
Cat 3 40%
Cat 4 5-10%
Cat 5 a possibility, but really small.

[Person Man]

Expect Mike to be up to 105-110 mph at 11am. The plane just measured 105 mph and a pressure of 964 mb

That's pressure you usually associate with a Category 3... or close. And the pressure fell like 5 mb over the course of 3 hours?

[Person Man]

Pink near the eye, pressure dropping, and the eye popping is not what you want to see

Looks like a skull... I've never seen any actual pink on this before.

[Person Man]

The pressure is now 937...

[Person Man]

The calm before the storm here is eeary.

Stay safe, Sanchez

[Person Man]

I see the rooster clouds already coming in... kinda breezy here on the Duval-St.John's county line.

[Person Man]

I see the rooster clouds already coming in... kinda breezy here on the Duval-St.John's county line.

Huh you’re exactly where I used to live. What’re you doing there?

Got a job working at a bank for a large Indian IT consulting firm. The work load is generally fine and the pay is modest but reasonable. I came for the job stability and have received nothing but praise for the last 6 months.


but Holy sh**t! Look at the pressure and winds now!

[Person Man]

Pressure down to 919 mb--the only two hurricanes that have come ashore lower than this were in 1935 and Camille in 1969.

Deepest hurricane in 50 years to make landfall in mainland US then?

[Person Man]

Pressure down to 919 mb--the only two hurricanes that have come ashore lower than this were in 1935 and Camille in 1969.

Deepest hurricane in 50 years to make landfall in mainland US then?

Looks that way. And the plane measured an estimate of 917mb so even as it comes in it's continuing to intensify.

Winds at landfall are 155. Just two shy of Category 5.

[Person Man]

Pressure down to 919 mb--the only two hurricanes that have come ashore lower than this were in 1935 and Camille in 1969.

Deepest hurricane in 50 years to make landfall in mainland US then?

Looks that way. And the plane measured an estimate of 917mb so even as it comes in it's continuing to intensify.

Winds at landfall are 155. Just two shy of Category 5.

It will probably be upgraded to a Cat 5 posthumously.

Definitely has a sub920 pressure.

[Person Man]

Well, it really did bomb out.  Centeral American gyre storms are supposed to be able to do that.  Glad it didn't come to New Orleans.  Hard enough to get out of the city when you see it coming 4 or 5 days ahead, but a late bloomer like this, no chance.

It was definitely a dub step storm. It had a wicked sick drop!

[Person Man]

The storm is officially down to category 1 intensity, about 85 MPH.

How much rain is it dropping

It's moving pretty fast and isn't a huge storm, so with isolated exceptions  that won't be a problem.

The main problem with the storm in GA is the downed trees, and I mean they're up there. It's really bad. Tornadoes too.

Also, post assessment might reveal that it was a Cat. 5. It's a real possibility.

Once Michael moved inland it cut across many rural counties with very high rates of mobile homes.  So wind and damage from fallen trees will probably be substantial.  Lots of poor and out of the way places that people don't generally get to and have been losing population for some time now.  Probably will hasten that decline.

Which actually reminds me of something. Back in college, there were a lot of trailer parks. I even lived in one for a year. This was kind of the norm in a small town with a "rigged" (a normal sized apartment was like $800 a month and the jobs to be had only paid like $200-300 a week) economy. Thus for a town of 30000 people, there were a dozen trailer parks, so a substantial portion of the town's population lived in them. The town and school itself was  probably the public university that is the farthest from sea level and was on a 30 x 100 plateau between RMNP, a small mountain range to the east, and a somewhat more substantial one to the west. On this plain, winds would sometimes come off the mountains and gust as powerful as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane (on at least two recent occasions, there were reports of gusts over 100 mph and gusts to 40, 50, or even 60 were common on unseasonably warm winter days). I wonder why there wasn't more damage to all of those trailers.