I cannot see how the Democrats could have won in 1932 without the Great Depression.
The highly sectional "System of 1896", whilst best-known for eliminating the Republicans in the secessionist South, also eliminated the Democratic Party almost completely from:
- Upper New England
- most of Pennsylvania and Illinois
- the Upper Midwestern states of Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa
- the Pacific states of California, Oregon and Washington
In those states during the "System of 1896", the Democratic Party had almost no representation in state legislatures and very little ability (outside Presidential elections) to organise. In my view, it is highly plausible that without the Depression the sectionalism of the "System of 1896" could have intensified indefinitely.
keep in mind the Republicans were making inroads into the Democratic Solid South throughout the 1920s(just not in 1928). Its very possible that in this scenario the Democrats go the way of the Whigs and the Republicans become too big of a tent that causes them to split into two and you get your new party system
That would be a great idea for a TL where the Depression doesn't start until 1935 or 1936, Roosevelt loses in 1932, Democrats don't even nominate anyone in 1936, and a Third Party president wins in 1940.
