Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Person Man]

ObamaCare still isn't safe.

They could get one more anti ObamaCare senator in this congress if McCain or Menendez are replaced.

And the Senate map next year bad for Democrats. ObamaCare might come down to a few House Republicans next congress.

Ducey is not replacing McCain with an anti-ACA Republican and I am confident even if the GOP maintains a 220 seat majority, tgey won't have the votes in the House.

[Person Man]

The useless GOP at it again:

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Moving forward on Graham's plan is impossible without McConnell gutting the legislative filibuster, which he won't. Skinny repeal was their last chance this fiscal year. You can only use the reconciliation process in a certain subject/policy area once a year. So unless they decide to revisit their unpopular health care reform literally in the weeks leading up to their midterms with an already unpopular incumbent president, Graham-Cassidy-Heller is dead in the water.

Probably not actually true. No reconciliation bill has passed, since this bill failed. A different reconciliation could therefore pass for FY 2017. (Assuming we aren't past Sept 30th)

At least, that seems to be what people seem to be saying. No one really understands reconciliation.

McCain will vote down any process that requires reconciliation at this point so they can't viably pass a bill through using it anymore. They don't seem to have gotten that message yet.

If the GOP tried Cassidy-Collins, they might get, um, Collins back on board. Possibly Murkowski as well. They'd lose Rand Paul and possibly Lee or Portman, though.

And the HFC?

[Person Man]

Trump is trying to act like Andrew Jackson without the fact Jackson won an 11%+ popular vote three times, had a shifting electorate that turned towards him and the new frontiers people, and was in the heyday of Jefferson-Jacksonian ideology.

Basically, this will not end well for him. 

It is even going as well as it did in your TL?

[Person Man]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

Then you should buy some 'Yes' shares on PredictIt which are only trading at 15%.

Hey, if he does, that brings him below freezing..

[Person Man]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

I think he'll announce that he's paying them for one more month, and then we get to do this all over again in a month, when he'll announce that he's doing 1 more month, and so on.

Nothing on this?

[Person Man]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

I think he'll announce that he's paying them for one more month, and then we get to do this all over again in a month, when he'll announce that he's doing 1 more month, and so on.

Nothing on this?

The big announcement seems to be Jim Justice switching parties so I if Trump does stop CSR payments, the announcement wont be tonight.

Maybe it is time to put Pepe in the ground after all...

[Person Man]

Tomorrow is the big decision day and I'm fairly certain he will cut the CSR's.

I think he'll announce that he's paying them for one more month, and then we get to do this all over again in a month, when he'll announce that he's doing 1 more month, and so on.

Nothing on this?

The big announcement seems to be Jim Justice switching parties so I if Trump does stop CSR payments, the announcement wont be tonight.

I guess he's moving up in the world...the executive washroom really does that for people.

[Person Man]

Republican donor sues GOP for fraud over ObamaCare repeal failure

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I'm sure this will go nowhere, but it's amusing.

TBF, he has a point.

This almost like suing the doctor for malpractice when a patient dies because they don't respong to immunotherapy after they didn't respond to chemo.

[Person Man]

Trump has officially given up:

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TrumpCare

[Person Man]

Vox has an interesting article on shifting American attitudes on the government and health care.  Using data from Gallup and Pew polls, they found a huge swing in just the last four years.  On the question of  whether it's the federal government's responsibility to ensure that all Americans have health coverage, the results were:

2013: 42/56 (-14)
2014: 47/50 (-3)
2015: 51/47 (+4)
2016: 51/46 (+5)
2017: 60/39 (+21)

That's a net change of +16 in the last year, and an astonishing +35 over four years.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/16/16158918/voxcare-poll-government-run-health-care

Because the media literally straight up lies and people are getting desensitized to it...

Well, it also helps that Donald Trump essentially made the promise that everyone should have health care, something no other Republican would have done.

It seems like this is just a return to where the polls were in the 2000s- under the Bush presidency. It seems that voters just instinctively react to whichever party's fortunes are doing well. We used to have a poster here named Sam Spade who said that health care reform was something the Democrats should campaign on every time, but never actually enact. I think this is what he meant.

Basically abortion for Democrats?

[Person Man]

Rand Paul is a No on Graham-Cassidy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/randpaul/status/908675484493516800

Moving along...
This basically makes it DOA.

[Person Man]

A few points of importance from here: http://www.politico.com/story/2017/09/17/obamacare-senate-republicans-repeal-242821

- McConnell will only bring up Graham-Cassidy if there are 50+ definite votes for the legislation. This means there will be no telling people "Just vote for the motion to begin debate and you can vote no on final passage later.", no late night whipping on CSPAN2, and no uncertainty during the process. If it's certain McConnell has 50+ votes, he'll bring it up, otherwise, it won't receive a second of discussion in the full senate.

- No vote this week due to the CBO needing more time to score it and the senate's limited schedule. If a vote happens, it will be during the week of September 25-30.

- If it passes the senate, the house must pass it as is or not at all, due to the extremely limited timetable.

So, this is a dead of night thing?

[Person Man]

The GOP is lower than dog shiit. Oh well...if anything, the destruction of ACA will hopefully lead to a single payer system

Or to be more precise, the destabilization of the insurance industry.

[Person Man]

The only way this passes is that they were aleays going to pass it....and always could.

[Person Man]

One thing that strikes me as odd is this  - they lost last time essentially because McCain was upset with the lack of bipartisanship and decided to f**k them. So their solution this time is to publicly give the middle finger to bipartisanship to put pressure on people? Like, it doesn't seem like the ideal design for that end.

I almost wonder whether this isn't just for show with Senate Republicans feeling like they needed to give the appearance of an Obamacare repeal fight right before the deadline arrived.  

That's one thing that's possible. It's either some way of saying "we tried" or they could have passed it all along but are trying to make themselves appear more capable or the opposition more powerful than they are in order to keep the traditionalists and populists happy.

If this thing does pass, this might give us  a prelude to what the overturn of Roe v. Wade would look like. That is, the Feds just punted on a major issue and it would then be up to the 50 states each to come up with a solution.

[Person Man]

Every gop healthcare plan will be disaster.

Yep, just think about it. If the ACA is really as bad as they say it is, they must be pretty dumb and incompetent to not be able to come up with something better.

Define "good"

[Person Man]

Every gop healthcare plan will be disaster.

Yep, just think about it. If the ACA is really as bad as they say it is, they must be pretty dumb and incompetent to not be able to come up with something better.

Define "good"

Any improvement on the ACA would be good, or a move towards single-payer, of course.

and for them?

[Person Man]

Important implications for any Republican attempts at healthcare next year under a new reconciliation vehicle:

Garrett Haake @GarrettHaake
More evidence @MooreSenate would be a nightmare for @SenateMajLdr - campaign spox says he would vote no on Graham/Cassidy. Wants full repeal

https://mobile.twitter.com/garretthaake/status/910923231615488001

Moore for Senate! He's a good old 1950s Alabama Democrat at heart.

Weren't you telling us in the last push that people who lost their insurance should basically start digging ditches?

[Person Man]

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F**K YOU

This is basically just an exercise in masturbation.

[Person Man]

21% want a vote next week...

[Person Man]

lol McCain screwing his bff. 

and not proper this way, either. Wasn't this all Cassidy's idea, anyways?

[Person Man]

Why did all the x's in "reply number x" get reduced by ~ 30?

EDIT: Wait, they just got reduced further. Now they are ~ 200 lower then they were a few hours ago. What's going on?

They are deleting all of our nonsense posts. Probably to sace space.

[Person Man]

Yeah. This is already post 1924. I don't think Obamacare will be repealed in another 70 some odd posts.

[Person Man]

This won't pass. No sane Democrat will vote for this as it guts key ACA provisions, allows junk insurance to be sold & gives states multiple waivers.

Obamacare as people know it will be dead. This will be a new modified, more conservative version. It is like a Graham Cassidy bill, only it doesn't penalize the blue states & doesn't approach a block-grant approach to the fund being raised.

All 48 senate democrats support it. It has my support as well.

No they don't. Why would Democrats vote to guy the ACA & condemn more people to bankruptcy & in some states people will die as a result of this.

Why not support Graham Cassidy then? The Devil is in the details, but some of the waivers, state options & junk insurance scheme is effectively ending ACA & taking it into a worse direction. Again, the devil is in the details, so let us see, but it doesn't look good as a plan.

There will be no vote.