Sun Belt vs. Rust Belt

[Person Man]

If we pick the Rust Belt and end up losing Michigan by 2, PA by 3 and OH and FL by 6, we look like Gore or Kerry.
If we pick the Sun Belt and lose FL by 2, AZ and GA by 6, and MI and PA by 4, we end up looking like Romney or McCain.

We haven't had a democrat win a very close election since Carter. Even in 2012, Obama had three big states to spare.

[Person Man]

Well its because the Sun Belt and Rust Belt have two very different cultures.

Florida is a bit of both.

[Person Man]

Well its because the Sun Belt and Rust Belt have two very different cultures.

Florida is a bit of both.

For someone that has been to Florida a lot, and a gf from FL. It's not really.

There are a lot of Rust Belt people down here. I guess it really depends on where you are.

[Person Man]

Dems have to double down on both but the key to winning the EC is to flip WI, MI, PA where Trump won by less than 1%, they are easily winnable with the right candidate. The Sun belt will come into play in 10-12 years with a more diverse population & young people coming into the voting bloc.

Dems so far 1 Sen fron OH, 2 from MI, 2 from MN, 1 from WI, 1 from PA, that's 7, you can't make that number easily. The Senate & the WH will be lost for a generation, for atleast 10-12 years.

In the short term, you appeal to the rust belt, pretty indisputable IMO ! Rust Belt voters in Healthcare, Education, Trade (Anti-Free Trade is a classic left wing issue), Infra, Minimum Wage, etc mesh more with the Dem's than with the GOP!

Thing is, it's not hard to see a 2020 scenario where all of those states keep trending and vote for Trump by 5% anyway, like Florida for Bush in 2004.  It's not at all obvious that MI/WI/PA will be closer than FL/GA/NC next time.  It would be really, really bad to spend $50M in Michigan and $500K in Georgia and lose both by 3%.  Democrats have sucked at winning close elections for the past 50 years.  Perhaps it's because they spread themselves too thin trying to be everything to everyone?   

Devil's Advocate: But that is how Trump won.

[Person Man]

Well its because the Sun Belt and Rust Belt have two very different cultures.

Florida is a bit of both.

For someone that has been to Florida a lot, and a gf from FL. It's not really.

There are a lot of Rust Belt people down here. I guess it really depends on where you are.

She's from Orlando. I usually go to Central Florida (Orlando/Tampa) whenever I go there. Plus I sometimes drive through Northern FL. Miami I hardly ever visit.

There really isn't any industry down here but there is a lot of light stuff and limestone mining. There are a lot of rust belt people, though. I think a good analogy about the people is that north of I-4, it's more of the Bible Belt, between I-4 and Lake a Okeechobee, its more of a Rust Belt feel, and below that its like the Big Northern City.

It's really hard to define Florida and it should be split down the middle, but the Democrats down here are "hard to organize". 

[Person Man]

The Sun Belt's dems desperately need to become better organized.

[Person Man]

You would think that Republicans would be as vulnerable to that sort of monkey business because their voters are now as easy to target as Democrats are.

48% of Democratic Voters are Minorities.

46% of Republican Voters are White Fundamentalists.

[Person Man]

Or should we just worry about presenting a message that broadly appeals to voters in any of those states?

This is the only non-"Dover Beach" answer.

Excellent analogy. Correct as well.

What does it mean to be a "Dover Beach" answer?

Have you heard of the Dover Cliffs?