TEXAS WAS NOT CLOSE
Arizona isn't really a good bet. Democrats literally the same level of support in the state since 2000. For every Hispanic that enters two white Republicans move in and immigration to the state has slowed down considerably since 2010. It could vote narrowly Democratic in a good year but the advantage is lean R for the indefinite future.
Same dynamic in Florida? Or the general Republican strategy?
For every 25 year old programmer or artist or creative type or immigrant that moves in, there is at least another 60 year old near-millionaire evangelical from Michigan or Tennessee that moves in. And a few of those prgrammers or immigrants are Mormon, Pentacostal, or Alt-Right.