If he turns out to not a complete and total disaster. Expectations are set so low for him (and the 2020 Democrats are so abysmal) I've become resigned the the fact that I'll probably be a Clinton 2016/Trump 2020 voter.
If the economy doesn't slide into recession, he proves able to play tough in Syria and the SCS, and is willing to stand up to the crazy ultra-conservative Congress on a few issues (like repealing Obamacare without a suitable replacement), I expect that he will have an above-average first term. His "tough guy" act coupled with a rise in the national mood would make him very, very hard to defeat in 2020.
11 years without a recession?
