Which is more likely in 2018 Democrats retake the Senate or a GOP supermajorty. (user search)
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  Which is more likely in 2018 Democrats retake the Senate or a GOP supermajorty. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Which is more likely in 2018 Democrats retake the Senate or a GOP supermajorty.  (Read 508 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: December 21, 2016, 02:54:32 PM »

A GOP supermajority is a 50-50 chance, and a Democratic majority is next to impossible, so obviously the 60 seats.  Remember that there are 12 Democrats up for re-election in red and swing states, while only one Republican is up for re-election in a swing state (and none in blue states), using 2016-only PVI.
Nevada went D.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 36,751
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2016, 02:57:39 PM »
« Edited: December 21, 2016, 03:10:09 PM by Spicy Purrito »

It all depends upon how terrible Trump will be...if he's moderately terrible yet distracts the voters with his buffoonish antic then the Dems will lose seats

Destroys the Clinton machine, Bush dynasty, Obama's legacy, 16 seasoned politicians (govs/sen), yet still gets dismissed as a joke by his enemies.

These are not mutually exclusive things.

Pretty much. Then again, maybe Bush and his team were masterminds that were ridiculed. No one could stop him until he had already caused his damage.

Statemanship is like a rubberband. The more you press against, the harder the backlash..the only truly succesful politicians are those who break the rubber band. No one has really broken the rubber band without a good reason. There is unrest in the world and people who have been left behind, but most of that unrest is where there used to be Evil Empire TM and those left behind are those no whom many  don't want help.

This could be a Bizzaro Return to Normalcy campaign after a flawed progressive campaign has changed much but fallen short.

Harding and Coolidge presided over the outlawing of immigration and alcohol, cutting almost all taxes, putting up tariffs, and a culture of extreme corruption.
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