Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 (user search)
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  Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6  (Read 3294 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: November 03, 2016, 03:16:49 PM »

Isn't that Rove's outfit? If that is true, Trump gets ed and not proper ed.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,683
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2016, 03:36:04 PM »

Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado.

Her ceiling seems to be around 45%. We don't know how undecideds will break, or if Johnson voters switch to Trump on election day.

If you don't know how undecideds will break, then you don't know that her ceiling is around 45%.

At any rate, if Hillary loses in Colorado, the whole election would have been called for Trump before Colorado is called.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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Posts: 36,683
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2016, 03:43:04 PM »


Maybe too many Hispanics, but 15% could happen...if they are really THAT motivated. Let's say its like 12-13%... then still Hillary is leading by like 4. 
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2016, 04:01:20 PM »

Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado.
That actually seems plausible. The numbers of people who said that aren't entire sure they will vote is close to the people who say they don't know who they are voting for.
Her ceiling seems to be around 45%. We don't know how undecideds will break, or if Johnson voters switch to Trump on election day.

If you don't know how undecideds will break, then you don't know that her ceiling is around 45%.

Why would someone willing to vote against Trump not have decided against him by now? What the hell could they possibly be waiting for?

So you're saying you do know how undecideds will break, and they'll all break for Trump. That's ridiculous.
To turn your question around, why would someone willing to vote against Clinton not have decided against her by now? Who knows, but as long as there are undecideds, some will end up voting for Clinton, some for Trump, some for third parties.

It's entirely likely many of those undecideds don't vote at all as well, so you can't just automatically assume they're all Trump just because your pessimism is disrupting your ability to use logic.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,683
United States


« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2016, 04:48:38 PM »

It's Rove's outfit.
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