Will ACA be (at least mostly) the law of the land in ten years from now?

[Person Man]

Begin!

[Person Man]

Of course.

Vermont and potentially some other states will have received a waiver for state innovation and moved on to a single-payer system, but the ACA will be the primary law governing health insurance in most states.

So, you think that a half a dozen very liberal states would have moved beyond ACA by then, even if most states go back to a model based on either getting insurance through loans or salaried work?

[Person Man]

Probably. I don't see the Republicans getting a super-majority in the Senate within the next 10 years

Could they defend through reconciliation?

[Person Man]

The likeliest option -- that it will never be fully repealed but will slowly be amended into something that looks very little like the original bill -- was left out

At a certain point, it becomes a defacto "repeal" or "replacement".

For example, this bill was supposed lower the uninsured rate to 4% but now looks like 7% because of medicaid expansion being nullified. If the bill was change so that the uninsured rate stayed above 10%, you could argue that the bill has been "repealed".

Given these definitions...