Millennials Up For Grabs?

[Person Man]

Let's not forget that the demographic explosion of minorities skews heavily young and thus more likely to be Democratic. Minority births reached a majority in 2011 , and around 55-60% of today's under 18 group is minority. It is projected that the under 18 cohort will reach minority majority status later this decade.

The young vote will be skewing even more black and brown each election cycle , furthering their Democratic lean.

Unless the Republicans actually ... *gasp* ... reach out to minorities.

They won't. It's much easier for them to become the white party.

Race-based political parties are disgusting. Politics should be about ideas and policies. One shouldn't be forced to become a leftist or a rightist based on the genes of birth. There's something inherently racist about it. I'm still hoping against hope that there is a place for all races in both parties...

Yes. I think it was pretty ed up how 60% of white voted for Romney and that non-whites voted 80% for Obama. The exit polls made us all look like racists.

[Person Man]

The Millennials:

1) Typically connect Bill Clinton as "their" president growing up
2) Blame George Bush and Karl Rove for this nation's problems and experienced that trainwreck of a second term after two solid economic terms under Clinton (his doing or not)
3) Are socially liberal
4) Are far less religious
5) Are growing up in more unstable households than generations past. The "family values" deal may be a thing of the past
6) Viewed Mitt Romney as a smug elitist (overall).  
7) Don't like being told their s..t stinks and that they have to work for everything.
Are entitled, or believe they are.

The Republicans just don't connect with that, but #1/#2 were absolutely backbreaking for the GOP concerning those 22-35 years old.

This is mostly true with the exception of #7. It's not that millennials don't want to work, it's that we cannot find any work. Many millennials my age are more concerned about the bread and butter issues like the economy and education than we are about marriage equality or abortion. Millennials have been told their whole lives to go to college because it'll get us farther ahead with better paying jobs, so naturally millennials are going to vote for a party that sees education as a right and not as a privilege for the favored few. Many millennials after college are finding themselves moving back in with their parents because the jobs they went to college for just aren't there for them. I see and hear about it so often about how they are having to get low-paying jobs or work multiple part-time jobs in retail or restaurants just to make ends meet (I'm one of them with two part-time jobs, one of which is minimum wage while the other pays about $2.00 an hour more. My friend world three jobs, two of which are minimum wage and even moonlights as a drag queen just to have extra cash and he's still almost always broke). For these millennials, the prospect of raising the minimum wage appeals to them since many are working minimum wage jobs. I would argue that it's not solely about the cultural issues, although that certainly does play a factor as most millennials reject the family values nonsense spewed from the right regarding marriage equality. Not sure how my generation feels as a whole on sbortion as that's not a major issue to me when I vote since I'm a) not a woman and b) not straight and c) never going to have children, although I certainly consider myself pro-choice as I believe the government should not be in the business of making reproductive health decisions for women. The culture issues do turn millennials off because we/they grew up/are growing up in a time where more gay people are coming out and it's being more accepted, even in schools where it's cool to have a gay friend.

I'm a Millennial as well.  Many are finding out their first job isn't their dream job, and it's not meant to be.  You have to pay your dues and many from the age of 20-30 just don't want to do it.  Guess what? The supply of labor badly exceeds the demand for our labor. As for going to college....look at how many go to college and waste their time while there.  They get wasted/stoned, but don't learn anything, don't bother networking, and then oops, no employer wants me and I bring no value or skills to the market as a college graduate. That's the reality.  

As for Minimum Wage, most people have no concept (and it's scary) that raising that just results in an inflation adjustment for cost.  

There is work out there, but the prospect of putting in 80+ hour weeks the first few years out of school for an average salary doesn't appeal to many Millennials.  As a CPA/Accountant in practice, I see it all the time.  Many can't handle it and quit after a year in public or private accounting, and then boom, their careers are off to a train-wreck of a start, living at home, with no path to success.  As for the hours in some industries...it is what it is and yes, there are sacrifices that sometimes have to be made, including personal relationships during that "paying your dues" timeframe. It's all a choice.

That is the reality.  The odds are clearly against the Milliennials in this global economy given the supply/demand labor, but I get annoyed when I hear "there's no work available for decent money".  There is, but do the Millennials want to do the work and EARN it is the bigger question.

I have kind of learned the hard way that STEM jobs are really the only way to go and to have a high enough GPA to get into a graduate program helps you avoid dead end jobs that give you the Pawn Star treatment.

What are you looking for?
Ugh.....50?
Not gonna happen. We can do 33.
45?
34 is my last offer.

That's about what you get with a graduate adsistship.

[Person Man]

So as allegedly obsessed the likes of the Udall campaign are with social issues, its actually a good idea. Of course, with there being a 50/50 chance that Supreme Court will throw out the Right to Privacy in the next five years, it may be a good idea. The Republican Party has told libertarianesque moderates that they just say stuff to get people to vote and that they were unable to act on those things. With that gone, things will be different.

[Person Man]

As a 20 year old born in 1994, I personally lean towards the growing Libertarian wing within the GOP, and I also know several other people in my age group who are also leaning in that direction. On the other hand, I live in suburban Georgia, which is currently a GOP stronghold as is.

Nationally, I agree that those born after 1993 will be more pro-GOP than the 1982 - 1992 crowd. However, the Republicans must become moderate to liberal on social issues. People in my age group are less keen about the Democrat Party's view on fiscal matters, but we're as socially liberal as those who were born in the 80's. An evangelical, socially conservative GOP cannot survive.

That doesn't mean it will try. Or maybe the Republican party will do well this year only to get its butt kicked in 2016, by 2020, they will have established a dynasty in Congress  and will have won with a moderate conservative who oversteps and loses congress and is forced to be pushed to the center. Hey. It could happen.

[Person Man]

How Republicans like Gardner do this year will be very indicative. Can the Republicans put lipstick on the pig to solve their problems by claiming to be "New Republicans"?  

Democrats were having trouble with getting kids to vote for them in the late 90s/early 00s. It was very tough for them to find "green shoots" after their poor performance in 2004. They managed to quickly rebuild their party after GOP fatigue set in and it was enough to nearly eradicate the Republicans in 2008. 2014-2020 may be 1998-2004 all over again. This may be how things are until we find "The Next Big Thing".

[Person Man]

As a 20 year old born in 1994, I personally lean towards the growing Libertarian wing within the GOP, and I also know several other people in my age group who are also leaning in that direction. On the other hand, I live in suburban Georgia, which is currently a GOP stronghold as is.

Nationally, I agree that those born after 1993 will be more pro-GOP than the 1982 - 1992 crowd. However, the Republicans must become moderate to liberal on social issues. People in my age group are less keen about the Democrat Party's view on fiscal matters, but we're as socially liberal as those who were born in the 80's. An evangelical, socially conservative GOP cannot survive.

That doesn't mean it will try. Or maybe the Republican party will do well this year only to get its butt kicked in 2016, by 2020, they will have established a dynasty in Congress  and will have won with a moderate conservative who oversteps and loses congress and is forced to be pushed to the center. Hey. It could happen.

This is all speculation on my part. For all we know, young people could suddenly become more socially conservative due to a string of events or one singular event. (Look at how people are becoming more interventionist thanks to this whole ISIS ordeal.) All I can do is speculate with the data that currently exists. But I do agree the GOP will have to change on some issues.

I can see the pro-life movement having a streak of really good news cycles in a row (like a celebrity "having mercy" on a deformed fetus or after being raped and/or botched abortion scandals or a sudden breakthrough in medicine that is spun poorly) or a new disease or research that "proves" there is negative consequences for being gay or for healthy adults who smoke marijuana....or a terrorist attack..especially one that is stopped by gun owners.

...but just as likely there might be research that shows that there are fewer negative consequences  for mild drug use or perhaps someone does something really insensitive to women or if there is a sudden increased visibility of violent racism/sexism.

[Person Man]

… People in my age group are less keen about the Democrat Party.…

…Democratic.

No one is keen about the Democrat Party.

[Person Man]

I somewhat suspect that we'll simply end up with a more economically conservative Democratic Party if anything

Maybe less aggressive on gun control?

[Person Man]

I somewhat suspect that we'll simply end up with a more economically conservative Democratic Party if anything

Maybe less aggressive on gun control?

Democrats are already economically conservative and non-aggressive on gun control though.
Also, I doubt that's the direction a less white, less well-off generation of youth want.

At least from my perspective, it seems that people my age and younger just think of Abu Ghraib, Domestic Spying Katrina and Terri Schiavo when we think of Government intervention into things that aren't cut and dry guns and butter things.

[Person Man]

Basically, we might be heading towards a post-civil rights version of the late Gilded Age/Progressive Era and New Deal Era where the main hot-button issues were Coach vs. First Class-type issues. There were about 30 years from about 1894 to 1930 where the First Class folks got their way and from 1932 to 1968, the folks in Coach got their way. Maybe with millennials and the decline of Evangelicals, we will see a return to that narrative. This happened before in the 19th century when religious thinking dominated politics only for them to eventually overreach with William Jennings Bryan's various crusades and prohibition.