Without Schweitzer in, Louisiana.
The current senate balance sits at 52-46-2, or 54-46.
New Jersey is a given flip. That pushes it back to 55-45.
West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana are now Lean R, or at least Tilt R. Assuming they flip, this pushes it to 52-48. Republican recruitment in North Carolina and Iowa is failing, and Michigan is too Democratic to vote R at this point. That leaves Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana. I ended up voting Louisiana, as whether or not Landrieu holds on will basically be a slight indicator as to whether Begich and Pryor hold on as well.
This. Republicans will do well this year, but there will have to be a landslide next year, between the size of 2006 and 2010 for them to take back the Senate. Luckily, they only have to target seats that should already be theirs but the economy's stable and Republicans have been very unreasonable.
Poll
