CO, Ras: Romney leads by 2

[Person Man]

I think CO may be the ultimate  tipping point state and will come in right around the national average. So if the Rasmussen view of the electorate is right, then Romney is ahead 2 nationwide and ahead 2 in CO. Makes sense.

The big question for CO is the youth vote. If they show up, Obama wins, otherwise he loses. And of course Gary Johnson and the pot initiative throw a couple of variables into that equation as well.

This.

[Person Man]

Clinton lost Colorado his second time around, despite winning by a larger margin nationwide. It also swing against Bush in 2004. Maybe Colorado is just hostile to incumbents?

Probably, I also think CO is a bellwether state.  Not sure how Clinton lost CO in 1996, Bob Dole wasn't the most exciting candidate, but he was from Kansas.

Probably had good turnout in Greeley, La Junta, Julesburg and places like that.
At either rate, there are two possible narratives, Colorado is still trending D and still should hold but by a tighter margin but Colorado doesn't like incumbents or Colorado is coming home, as is Connecticut and New Hampshire to an extent. I personally think the latter. Outside of El Paso county and maybe parts of the Plains, there just isn't a place for Privacy Voters in the GOP, even if someone with a moderate past is running in a state with a libertarian streak.

[Person Man]

Interesting...

Clinton lost Colorado his second time around, despite winning by a larger margin nationwide. It also swing against Bush in 2004. Maybe Colorado is just hostile to incumbents?

I can actually see that...

Libertarian Streak?

[Person Man]

Does anyone know what % of the white vote each candidate got in this poll?

I think states like CO are trending Dem in the long term (very high education rate, growing latino population) but the idea of CO being 1% more GOP than the nation isnt far fetched as it was only like 1-2% more Dem than Obama's national margin in 2008. McCain also put all his $$ into PA and away from CO, NV the final weeks. That being said, Obama's been slightly above his national numbers in PPP here and both him and Bennet overperformed polls in 2008, 2010 by about 4 points. In BOTH, the dems outperformed Rasmussen by 5. PPP has actually been the best pollster there.

2008 final polls: PPP 54-44 Obama, Rasmussen 51-47 Obama, result- Obama 54-45
2010 final polls: PPP Buck 49-48,  Rasmussen Buck 50-46, result 48-47 Bennet

Those were joke candidates and were harped for their social issues.  Romney is a different ball game.  Enthusiasm for the GOP will be higher than 2010.

That would be a Republican miracle anywhere. You aren't going to outperform 2010. If this was 2010, I think Romney would be ahead by 5 or 6 right now and we would more or less have a R mirror of 2008.

[Person Man]

Does anyone know what % of the white vote each candidate got in this poll?

I think states like CO are trending Dem in the long term (very high education rate, growing latino population) but the idea of CO being 1% more GOP than the nation isnt far fetched as it was only like 1-2% more Dem than Obama's national margin in 2008. McCain also put all his $$ into PA and away from CO, NV the final weeks. That being said, Obama's been slightly above his national numbers in PPP here and both him and Bennet overperformed polls in 2008, 2010 by about 4 points. In BOTH, the dems outperformed Rasmussen by 5. PPP has actually been the best pollster there.

2008 final polls: PPP 54-44 Obama, Rasmussen 51-47 Obama, result- Obama 54-45
2010 final polls: PPP Buck 49-48,  Rasmussen Buck 50-46, result 48-47 Bennet

I would be willing to bet that it would be Obama +3 for a PVI of  .5% R.

[Person Man]

AND 2006. Though 2004 was pretty accurate...