Now if McCain had won the election in 2008, we might have had a chance of having a 1912 in 2012, but the only way we could conceivably have a repeat of 1912 in 2012 now is if we repeal the 22nd Amendment so that George W. Bush could get the GOP nomination because of being friends with the dealmakers and the Tea Party hadn't settled on a candidate, but one of them continues the fight. (Note this puts W in the role of Taft and the Tea Party in the role of those backing Roosevelt and LaFollette.)
Then again, the Bull Moose Party was the moderate wing of the GOP, not the radical wing of the GOP. Maybe McCain's Neoconservatism and Palin's cultural nationalism would have been enough to generate a moderate backlash. There would have been no party anyway because there would be no racial populism or entitlement reform backlash to cause it. It would have been very interesting to see what McCain would do with two liberal SCOTUS vacancies, an economic teetering on full-flung depression, Iran and the 2011 Intifadah. - Now that's a timeline.
