Depends on what is in the final bill. If the final bill reflects most of the commitments made in the Senate finance committee and doesn't include a public option, it should get the votes of all the Republicans on the finance committee (Grassley might vote against it anyway, he is that way) and might pick up the votes of a few more moderates. If, on the other hand, the final version of the bill includes a public option, it will not reach a 60-vote threshold (three Senate Democrats are currently opposed to the public option), and that would force a very ugly reconciliation process. So, just ballpark, a reform bill without a public option has a chance of getting 66 votes, a reform bill with a public option will get dragged through reconciliation will get about 53-55 votes.
Pretty much. That'll learn 'em!
