The Only Real Issue That Hurts Republicans in 2004

[MarkDel]

I'm sure most of you out there will disagree with me, but there is only one issue out there that could prevent George W. Bush from easily winning a second term...

JOBS!!!

Forget the idiocy the Democrats keep talking about Weapons of Mass Destruction, Vietnam-like quagmires, George Bush is AWOL, blah, blah, blah...all of that means NOTHING.

As the 2002 midterm elections proved, the average American LIKES George Bush, and likes MOST of the Republican policies relating to international relations and economics. Also, most Americans do not approve of the way the modern Democratic Party behaves...see Paul Wellstone's funeral...see comments of George Soros...see comments of Michael Moore, etc, etc....

But where we (Republicans) are vulnerable is on the issue of jobs in general, and more specfically, the loss of manufacturing and quasi-service jobs (telemarketing, tech support, etc..) to foreign workers. I know most of my fellow Republicans will disagree with me, but the truth is that NAFTA and other similiar trade policies have been a short term disaster for the United States economy. Sure, Wall Street has been humming along and the second half of the 1990's featured a boom economy, but the truth is that the growth of the 1990's was built on a house of cards. Most of the growth was based on high tech, internet based business that proved to be non-profitable, and the jobs it produced are already gone and will NOT be coming back.

Now, I'm as educated as most of you and I certainly understand the theoretical basis behind free trade...in fact I was a strong proponent of NAFTA myself, but the fact remains that this nation has lost too many good paying jobs that are NEVER coming back.

So, it's my contention that the average American will be highly suspectible to the rhetoric of Democrats (like John Edwards or Dick Gephardt once one of them becomes the VP candidate to Kerry) who rail against the loss of jobs to foreign workers. I still think Bush is a solid favorite to win, but this Jobs/Trade issue could prove to be the Holy Grail to a Democratic Party which seemingly had ZERO message from 2000 to 2003.

What do you guys think?

[MarkDel]

M,

You're right about the WMD issue being a potential long term policy problem, but I'm talking strictly about the politics of the 2004 Election.

And even the dropping unemployment you pointed out may not save us from this issue. Even some of the people who have found jobs recently have not found the same QUALITY of job they once had. What you're finding, is people settling for ANY job rather than continuing to wait around for the good job they once had or were educated to do. Do you agree?

[MarkDel]

Jaichind,

Much of what you say is true, but much of what you say is also incorrect or misleading. Here's where you are right and wrong:

YOU WERE RIGHT:

1. The drop of the unemployment rate from 6.3 to 5.6 IS misleading because many of the people who dropped off that list simply ran out of unemployment benefits and are still not working.

2. Most of the new jobs created were low paying retail and service jobs.

3. There are currently profound and fundamental structural problems with the U.S. economy.

4. These prolems are NOT the result of actions by the Bush administration.

YOU WERE WRONG

1. You said Bush has done nothing to try and solve these problems, but you ignore massive tax cuts which HAVE acted as a stimulant to the economy.

2. The comparison to the Hoover administration was quite silly in light of the overall economic picture. I believe you'll find that the economy was FAR worse under Carter than Bush, for example.

3. In your assessment of the unemployment figures, you fail to point out the massive increase in self-employment over the past few years, and that these numbers are NOT properly reflected when new job creation is calculated. This is a CRUCIAL point, because traditional job creation statistics do not reflect the modern trend towards the startup of small business and the tendency of many to act as independent contractors rather than employees.

[MarkDel]

NHPolitico,

I would have disagreed with you until recently, but now I think I was wrong about free trade and guys like you were right all along.

[MarkDel]

Opebo,

Until very recently, I agreed with you. However, the results of Nafta and other 1990's trade policies have been a real eye opener for me. The Democrats are wrong about virtually everything, but they have a point when it comes to the loss of good paying manufacturing and service jobs. A business is always going to act in its rational best interest...and if they can save millions of dollars by paying a foreign worker a fraction of the money, why would they ever hire any US workers? Now in theory, the increased profitability should lead to the creation of more US based jobs, but it simply hasn't happened. Our economy is too hampered by over-regulation and ridiculous environmental regulations to be anything but a tourism based, service economy in a global marketplace. We simply cannot produce anything domestically that is cheap enough (due to labor costs and regulatory costs) to flow into the overall marketplace. Now over the long haul, this may change as the world becomes "smaller" and other nations raise their standards of living, but in the short term, the US economy has suffered and will continue to suffer. The stock market is a nice measurement of wealth accumulated, but if a large chunk of that wealth is spent on foreign workers and paid towards foreign taxes, it does little or nothing to create good paying jobs in the US.

I'm not a protectionist...far from it..but what I think we need to do is bring back some old US economic policies relating to tariffs, that we even the playing field and create Fair Trade instead of Free Trade. That's all I ask.

[MarkDel]

Opebo,

On a theoretical level I agree with you. But I've just seen too many well educated, capable people making $10 an hour in the current economy. I have a friend with an Ivy League education who after he was "downsized" went so long without a job that he now works as a freaking telemarketer! There is a FUNDAMENTAL problem with our economy right now.