CPD announces 5 debate qualifying polls - UPDATE: Johnson average 7.0%

[Likely Voter]

As expected they used the same list as last time but swapped out CNN for Gallup (who are sitting out this election for horse race polling). 


Here is what I get when I average the last 5 polls (note using 3-way for CBS and and FOX who are not polling Stein as of now).

Current 5-Poll CPD Average
Clinton   44.00
Trump   36.20
Johnson   9.80
Stein   4.67

For comparison I took a look at where things were a month ago....

Before the conventions 5-Poll CPD Average
Clinton   40.40
Trump   36.40
Johnson   10.80
Stein   5.33

So Stein and Johnson have actually trended down a bit, Clinton is up and Trump is flat.


As new polls get released we can use this thread to update the latest.

[Likely Voter]

If Johnson can trend up a few of points (to maybe 13.5+), they might margin-of-error him in.

14.5 maybe, 13.5 very very unlikely.

[Likely Voter]

15% is 15%, those are the rules. However, a guy from the CPD did say this...

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So even if Johnson was at 14.99999999% the rules say he would not be included, but they are going to be a little flexible. But not 13.5% range flexible.

[Likely Voter]

The CPD didn't adopt the 15% rule until 2000....

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http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=overview

Also 1992 was very complicated in regards to Perot who was polling as high as 40% at one point. It had dropped to around 20% when he dropped out in mid July. Then he got back in in early October and there wasn't a lot of polling before the first debate but what little there was he was below 15%, but as noted they weren't using the 15% rule at the time.

And all of that above complication is why they adopted the simple 15% rule...

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[Likely Voter]

With the new Fox poll the CPD poll average is...

Clinton (D)   43.4
Trump (R)   37
Johnson (L)   9.6
Stein (G)   4.5

Johnson and Stein are down a bit.  

The other 4 polls are now about a month old so we should expect four new polls soon. Assuming all five do new polls within a week of Labor day (before or after) that may be it for Johnson as it is hard to imagine them going all back into the field just a couple weeks later, although maybe a couple will.

Also interesting to see that Fox is now including Stein like ABC, NBC and CNN. This could be because of the CPD announcement? It will be interesting to see if CBS follows suit and then all five will be 4-way.

[Likely Voter]

new avg with CNN poll (assuming they use LV when available)...

Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   38.6
Johnson (L)   9.2
Stein (G)   3.8

Notes:
- ABC, CBS and NBC polls all released over a month ago
- only CNN has LV option
- CBS poll doesn't include Stein
- if CPD chose to use just RV (so no apples to oranges comparisons) then Johnson would be at 9.6.
- If only ABC, CBS and NBC release new polls before the cutoff*, Johnson will need to average 19.66 in those three to get in.

*CPD hasn't given a specific cutoff time, according to their site it says " They will be applied in mid-September, 2016." If I had to guess, their cutoff will be September 19th, which is one week before the debate.

[Likely Voter]

BTW, on Johnson's official site they are saying his current average is 10.0%. They are using all RV numbers (which is debatable) and using the NBC/Survey Monkey number instead of the NBS/WSJ number (which is lower), which could be an oversight but is probably just them lying to their supporters because it boosts his number. The CPD explicitly says they will use the NBC/WSJ poll (not the NBC/Survey Monkey poll)

[Likely Voter]

New Averages with ABC poll.

LV*
Clinton (D)   43.2
Trump (R)   39.4
Johnson (L)   9.4
Stein (G)   3.3
   
RV   
Clinton (D)   43.2
Trump (R)   37.4
Johnson (L)   10.2
Stein (G)   3.8


*when available, only ABC and CNN have done LV polls so far

[Likely Voter]

Have the CPD been any more specific on when the cut-off date will be for consideration? Seems like Johnson's running out of time.

They said "mid September". My bet is that means Monday, September 19th, one week before.  So Johnson has 8 days.  I suspect only 2 or maybe 3 qualifying polls will come out during that time. CBS and NBC haven't releases polls since early August.  FOX did one the week before Memorial day so they might squeeze one in before the debate, but maybe not before the CPD cutoff. 

It's pretty much impossible that Johnson is going to make it, but I will keep track never the less. 

[Likely Voter]

Update with CBS/NYT poll.

LV (when available)
Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   40.2
Johnson (L)   8.6
Stein (G)   3.4

RV
Clinton (D)   42.8
Trump (R)   37.6
Johnson (L)   10.0
Stein (G)   4.0

Notes:
- Average includes ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX and CNN
- With new CBS/NYT adding Stein, now all polls are 4-way
- FOX and NBC polls RV only (both are also pre Labor Day Wkd)

[Likely Voter]

New average with FOX poll
Polls included (newest to oldest): FOX, CBS, ABC, CNN, NBC


LV (for all but NBC)
Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   40.4
Johnson (L)   8.4
Stein (G)   3.2

RV
Clinton (D)   42.8
Trump (R)   37.2
Johnson (L)   10.0
Stein (G)   4.0

[Likely Voter]

Right now all the polls but NBC are from September samples and have both LV and RV. I bet NBC will have a new poll soon, maybe by this weekend's Meet the Press. CNN might squeeze in a new one before the debate but we still don't know when the 'mid September' cutoff is. As I said before, I think it will be one week before the debate, which is next Monday. They have also not said if they will use LV or RV, but I suspect LV since that is the topline the media outlets themselves use.   

As for Johnson's trend, he got up to around 11% before the conventions, but has hovered around 10% since the conventions when you look at just the RV numbers. But like with Clinton (and Stein), he loses some with the LV screens, which all the September polls have now added, so that gives a sense of a downward trend. In reality he has basically been even for weeks without a real trend at all.

If the CPD had a 10% threshold there would be a lot of drama around Johnson making it in, but with 15% I just don't see any chance they loosen their standards this late in the game and of course no chance he gets even close to 15% in either LV or RV by next week.

[Likely Voter]

I don't think the CPD really cares about the lawsuit or what pundits say or even what candidates complain about. Look at how Trump said he was going to get the dates changed and they didn't budge an inch. Also, they set the 15% standard in 2000 so it has nothing to do with Johnson.  In fact moving it down to accommodate Johnson would show favoritism against Stein.  That being said maybe there will be talks before 2020 there may be discussion about reviewing the 15%, but no way do they suddenly change a week before. 

[Likely Voter]

These guys have a process. They will review it and release something in 2019 and I'm sure they will try to explain it then.  But the way they essentially dismissed Trump's complaint showed that they don't want to appear to be reacting to campaigns and to the active race. They want to be above the current campaign and appear completely impartial to it.  Major last minute changes would make a farace of their long methodical process. 

[Likely Voter]

Update with NBC/WSJ poll (All are now 4-way LV polls from September)

Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   41.0
Johnson (L)   8.2
Stein (G)   2.8



They have not announced when they will set the cutoff for the next debate but it could be this week or at the latest next week. So it doesn't look like Johnson is going to make that one either, but I will keep track of the averages regardless.

[Likely Voter]

Here is the last update before the first debate, now with the latest ABC poll.

Clinton (D)   43.0
Trump (R)   41.6
Johnson (L)   7.4
Stein (G)   2.6

They will probably send out the invites for the second debate this week. Friday would mark 10 days before the debate and for the first debate they announced 10 days before.

[Likely Voter]

Things remain unchanged for Johnson after CNN poll.

Clinton (D)   44.2
Trump (R)   41.0
Johnson (L)   7.4
Stein (G)   2.8

The second debate is on this Sunday. If they wait until after the VP debate, then the announcements will go out in 2 days. The third debate is in 16 days.

[Likely Voter]

CBS poll is 3 weeks old, ABC and NBC are two weeks old. Only CNN and FOX are post debate as of now.

[Likely Voter]

With CBS again no change for Gary.

Clinton (D)   44.8
Trump (R)   40.8
Johnson (L)   7.4
Stein (G)   2.6

There are now 2 pre-debate polls, ABC (Johnson 5) and NBC (Johnson 9). Hard to say if they will have new polls before the 2nd debate announcements come out...not that Johnson has a chance.  

BTW, If trends continue, Johnson+Stein may go below 10%. Before the conventions it was over 16% (albeit with RVs).