CNN/ORC National: Clinton leads by 7 and 5 (user search)
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  CNN/ORC National: Clinton leads by 7 and 5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC National: Clinton leads by 7 and 5  (Read 1484 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« on: July 18, 2016, 02:26:50 PM »

Before we go down that road, a reminder (with the exception or Rasmussen) polls don't 'model' Party ID, because (unlike demographics) it is a fluid thing and also not the same as party registration.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-blumenthal/unskewed-polls_b_1924293.html
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2016, 02:44:00 PM »

The reweighting with CBS could be for demographics, the amount of D,R,I may just be a side effect. Regardless, as noted in the article, obsessing over party ID has been a pointless endevour in past cycles. Here on the Atlas it became the same argument over and over again in every thread. I hope we can avoid that this time as it is tiresome.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2016, 02:58:17 PM »

This article makes the point...
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http://articles.latimes.com/2012/sep/27/news/la-pn-pollsters-weight-surveys-20120927

So yes if we see a polling party ID trend towards R it could indicate a Trump win, but that would be reflected in the over-all horserace number anyway. So again, party ID is an interesting number and should be shown. But it shouldn't be 'forced' by the pollster model and it shouldn't be the metric by which a poll should be judged. General trackrecord and methodology is a better guide (sample size, do they phone mobile phones, do they offer Spanish, etc.)
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