Clinton VP news LATEST: Podesta now calling the losers to tell them its not them

[Likely Voter]

Just a little not about Tom Perez that was kind of funny/interesting. He was on CNN's Smerconish and was asked if he was willing to do the "dirty job" of taking on Trump as Clinton's VP nominee. He gave the usual vague reply about how he was not vying for the job, but then he said "I've had a lot of jobs in my life, including working on a garbage truck"   Which kind of sounds like a "yes" to me.

[Likely Voter]

I believe Trump said his announcement would be during the RNC. He thinks it makes the event more exciting than doing it beforehand. I suspect Clinton will wait until after the RNC, possibly the day it concludes in order to step on any RNC bounce.

[Likely Voter]

Well Gingrich actually has experience of a sort as a running mate going up against a Clinton. 20 years ago Bill Clinton was running against Bob Dole who had Jack Kemp as his running mate, but the Clinton campaign essentially turned Gingrich into Dole's running mate. As noted at http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/commercials/1996/

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[Likely Voter]

Indeed. The Clinton campaign constantly used "Dole-Gingrich"...I bet some low info voters actually thought Gingrich was Dole's running mate.  Any voter in their mid thirties or older should remember how much Gingrich was hated in the 90s.  Plus the GOP donor class pumped millions into stopping Gingrich in 2012 and now Trump is looking to them to fund his campaign. They arent going to jump on board and even with Adelson, Trump needs the donors.

I really don't see how he helps Trump, I think all this talk of Gingrich is just misdirection.  I think it is Trump's hamfisted way of trying to counter his problems with the current Speaker of the House to show he has a former Speaker on his side.

[Likely Voter]

I don't think Clinton will name warren as VP because in a way, she doesn't need to. Warren seems to be the biggest Clinton surrogate right now. She is fundraising for Clinton, she released a video with moveon.org on how Trump is a business fraud the same day Clinton gave her speech on Trump and the economy. She visited Clinton's office to pump up the troops. She is essentially already giving Clinton all the things they need from her on the ticket so does Clinton really need to actually add her to the ticket? If Clinton named someone else would Warren stop being a super-surrogate? I doubt it. She is reasserting herself as the leader of the progressives in the Senate, the position she had before Bernie got in. 
 
I still think Clinton will go with Kaine. He is qualified, he has good relationship with Clinton, he gives a swing state boost and there is no GOP gov issue. It is the ultimate easy decision pick.

[Likely Voter]

I'm not sure 'backfire' is the right way to look at Warren's effort if she doesnt' get VP. Remember in the pre-Bernie days everyone talked about Warren running. She was polling 2nd behind Clinton. She was the queen of the progressives. Then she didn't run and Bernie stepped in and in a way for over a year people kind of stopped paying much attention to Warren, short of wondering if she would endorse Bernie. In the last few weeks she has been reasserting herself, so being a Clinton super-surrogate is in her self-interest, regardless of being named Veep nominee.

[Likely Voter]

Kaine is the default choice. Anyone besides Kaine means one of two things...
1. They found a major liability with Kaine in the vet
2. They feel they have a major area of vulnerability that only another nominee can fill (like shoring up AAs with Booker, Latinos with Perez, Bacarra or Castro or Liberals with Warren, etc.).

[Likely Voter]

On this week's Keeping it 1600 podcast Maggie Haberman of the NYT said Newt has been told he is out, apparently for disloyalty to Trump when he spoke out against the Mexican judge comments.  Also said that things looked good for Kaine as the safe choice who has good relationship with Clinton.

[Likely Voter]

Of course Kaine's replacement would have to run to hold the seat in a special election in 2017 and there is no guarantee the Dems would hold the seat so there is a bit of risk with him too.  If Clinton wanted to go pure no risk, then it would have to be Vilsack. Former gov of IA and cabinet sec, he has experience and swing state bonus. And he grew up in Pennsylvania so bonus there plus he was an orphan, so interesting back story. 

[Likely Voter]

I suspect Christie is a fallback in case he can't get his preferred choice.  That being said,according to GAME CHANGE: DOUBLE DOWN, Romney's vet of Christie unearthed some skeletons. His history as a wall St lobbyest, including working for Bernie Maddoff was a big concern.  And that was all before Bridgegate.

[Likely Voter]

Add Mike Pence's name to the pile for Trump...

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http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/indiana-s-mike-pence-play-possible-trump-vp-pick-n601951

[Likely Voter]

There has been a development in the whole 'Bridgegate' thing...

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http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ex-port-authority-chairman-plead-guilty-bridgegate-probe-article-1.2700171

This adds on to the whole issue over whether Christie is the best guy to help Trump make the case that Clinton is 'crooked'.  Of course Gingrich has his own ethics issues, if Trump is looking for someone squeaky clean he may have to look elsewhere.

[Likely Voter]

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http://www.indystar.com/story/news/2016/07/06/ernst-withdraws-trumps-vp-search-endorses-pence/86763210/

[Likely Voter]

Whenever you see a hit piece going after a potential VP (especially in Politico) you have to wonder, where did this start?  It is quite likely that people from opposing potential VP pick's camps are leaking or pushing stories. So who wants to take down Booker? Same question for that article on Kaine's gifts (again also from Politico).  

[Likely Voter]

Maggie Haberban from the NYT again talks Trump VP on a podcast, this time CNN's The Axe Files. And again she says Gingrich is out and added that Newt confirmed to her that he was not being vetted. She said the names she continues to hear are Christie, Fallon, Sessions and Cotton.

On the Clinton side she said it doesnt look like Warren (for many reasons), and Tim Kaine is the favorite

[Likely Voter]

Unclear when it was recorded but the podcast was released yesterday. What she said exactly was "The names I keep hearing - it is not Newt Gingrich and Newt acknowledged the other day he is not being vetted - the names I continue to hear are Christie, Fallin, Session...and people like Tom Cotton...Corker is still in the running but he is a longer shot.

The fact that she mentioned Corker in the running says the podcast was recorded at least 2 days ago. Maybe she isn't in the know but she was quite dismissive of the notion of Gingrich twice so she is at least convinced he is out. 

[Likely Voter]

Reading the tea leaves it seems to me that there is no consensus in Team Trump on who to pick. Last week various insiders on WADR were talking about how Trump has always wanted Kasich for obvious reasons. I can see why he would also want Rice.  I think he is finding it hard to have to go to what he considers the silver or bronze package when he wants the gold or platinum package.

[Likely Voter]

To be clear they were saying Trump wanted Kasich starting at the beginning of the process but all attempts to reach out to him were rebuffed. I haven't seen anything about them reaching out to him this week, the sense I got was that they gave up.

[Likely Voter]

I wonder how much Iowa electoral math vs Virginia plays into this. Is Vilsack rising due to what looks like weakness in Iowa?

[Likely Voter]

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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/21/us/politics/tim-kaine-bill-hillary-clinton-vp.html?

[Likely Voter]

if you are going to post information in this thread (or any thread) please cite and ideally link to a source

[Likely Voter]

538 calculates percent boost people from various battlegrounds would give to Clinton.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tim-kaine-probably-wouldnt-win-clinton-the-election/

Florida    +1.8
Ohio    +1.3
Pennsylvania    +1.1
North Carolina    +0.8
Virginia    +0.7
Michigan    +0.4
Iowa    +0.4
Colorado    +0.4
Minnesota    +0.4
Nevada    +0.3
Arizona    +0.3
Wisconsin    +0.3
Georgia    +0.3

So Kaine adds a 0.7% chance to win, Vilsack only 0.4%.